Russian roulette may embolden China to provoke India: Experts

Even as tensions continue to simmer at the Ukraine Russia border, and the United States-led NATO and Moscow engaging in a war of words, experts in India believe that China may take advantage of the vulnerability among the global order and may ramp up its military activities along the Line of Control with India. 

The experts are also of the opinion that Beijing may carry out some activities along the Line of Actual Control once the country is done with the Winter Olympics which began earlier this month. 

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Talking to Asianet Newsable, associate fellow at MP-IDSA Swasti Rao said, "There is a very strong probability that China may conduct strong military or other activities along the Line of Control after the Winter Olympics get concluded and it is being felt everywhere. Even the US Indo-Pacific Air Force head has gone on record and said that I am ready for it."

US Air Force General Kenneth S Wilsbach has voiced concern over the Chinese that it might take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis and may carry out some provocative action in Asia. 

Talking to media persons on the sidelines of the Singapore Air Show at Changi Exhibition Centre, Wilsbach said he was "concerned about what might China consider doing in the future that might look very similar to what's happening with Ukraine and Russia."

In the past, the Chinese have taken actions to test for potential reactions to see if they can get away with it or if there would be any pushback, he said.

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Defence expert Major General Ashok Kumar said, "In case war breaks out between Ukraine and Russia, US-led NATO will in any way come in support of Ukraine while China would support Russia indirectly. Like it would further encroach into the South China Sea and challenge the Quad nations --- US, India, Australia, and Japan."

With India, the standoff already exists along the LAC in eastern Ladakh between the two armies. It could further escalate to parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Maj Gen Ashok Kumar said.

Swasti Rao said, "The fact that China has strengthened itself after the longstanding standoff between the US and Russia over Ukraine issue, China does feel a little emboldened. What this particular Ukraine standoff has done is that once again, according to Beijing, US posturing in the world has weakened and questioned the US ability to be the world leader. If you look at China, it is very good in information warfare and this is a kind of position that they have been trying to take."

"China would like to undermine the fact that the US is a credible world leader and anything which can impact the reputation of the US is something which comes very handy for China. So that is why China is feeling emboldened. It can very well be expected that China will try to take leverage of this vulnerability in the world," she added. 

Talking about the quantum of trade between Beijing and New Delhi, Swasti Rao said, "The other reason that I feel China is feeling a little emboldened about taking a stand at LAC once the winter Olympics has done and dusted is also that Beijing understands Indian vulnerability when it comes to not being able to diversify the economic trade from China to elsewhere." \

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In 2021 alone, "our economic trade for the first time crossed the $125 billion mark. China understands the vulnerability even though they ramp up some military activities along the LAC, perhaps it would really not affect or reflect in our trades so much. Because of all these things together and of course, the China-Russia alliance has also become a little most strengthened so China is in a better place."
 
The expert also reasoned that China could try to push the envelope near the LAC considering President Xi Jinping would have to show his efforts to secure the border to the Communist Party of China. 

"Another reason why I think China would try something is that back home, (Chinese President) Xi Jinping has to show the report card to the CPC. He is very serious about securing the Chinese borders. We should be ready that china might ramp up the military activities along the LAC," she said.