Palaniswami's unpopularity and Panneerselvam's silence do not bode well for the AIADMK Should elections be called now, voters may prefer the DMK for now. Knowing this, MK Stalin, is doing everything he can to dissolve the AIADMK govt
Despite winning his now infamous floor test in the Tamil Nadu Assembly on 18 February, E K Palaniswami's wicket is still looking quite shaky. In a bid to firm up his fortunes, Palaniswami announced a slew of sops and an increase in freebies. Perhaps revealingly, he did the deed with the now standard photo of J Jayalalithaa. There is no escaping from her shadow it would seem.
His patron, VK Sasikala, oof course, has been jailed - her still-born political ambitions stifled by a 20-year-old corruption case that the AIADMK's opposers have doggedly pursued to the bitter end, despite endless delays and much political drama in the interim. Even if the claims that she will 'run' the party from her jail cell are to be believed, it will be hard going once some time passes.
On the other side of the rebellion, O Panneerselvam has gone mostly quiet. There is little he seems to be able to do to change his image as a puppet. First, he was Jayalalithaa's, then Sasikala's and now most believe he is either the DMK's or the BJP's front man. It is an awkward position to be in, no doubt. If he rebels any stronger, the AIADMK will shatter as a party. And the longer he stays silent, the more powerful Palaniswami becomes.
And even as the AIADMK burns, its greatest rival is bedridden - perhaps unable to enjoy a victory that he has long sought. M Karunanidhi has battled the AIADMK for nearly three decades, but he has been missing from the scene - at least for now.
The last leader standing, and the one most obviously set to be crowned king should the fates shift ever so slightly one way or the other, is the second son of the DMK supremo - MK Stalin. And judging by his ferocious actions over the past week - he knows this as well.
At 63, Stalin has the body language, and actions, of a man twenty years younger. Drama is the political currency of his state, and he has been generating it on full steam for days now.
Whether or not Panneerselvam will ever return to the CM's chair - the Stalin-led DMK is determined to bring about a repeat of 1988, and are working hard to try and make it happen.
Back in 1988, after MGR's death, the AIADMK split was between MGR's wife Janaki and MGR's close aide and party worker J Jayalalithaa. In the snap elections called after the Assembly was dissolved, the DMK returned to power for the first time in 13 years thanks to the feud. Perhaps Stalin hopes that if he can somehow get this government to fall, then the feat might be repeated. The DMK has been out of power for some 11 years now.
And should that happen - the snap elections - then only man truly poised to win it all is Stalin. Karunanidhi might finally be too old and too frail to take the CM's chair, even nominally. Stalin, who has been in politics since the age of 14, will, at last, occupy the highest chair in the Tamil land.
No one can say he hasn't worked for it. And perhaps his time has come at last.
