IMD projects below-normal rainfall at 90% of LPA for the monsoon season, affecting most of India except the Northeast. June will see less rain and above-normal temperatures, with heatwave warnings issued for UP, Bihar, Gujarat, and other states.
Monsoon Forecast: Below-Normal Rainfall Expected
Addressing a press conference, Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent.
"We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error," Mohapatra said.
Regional Breakdown
According to the regional forecast, Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season.
Outlook for June
Providing the outlook for June, Mohapatra said rainfall is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may, however, witness normal to above-normal rainfall.
The IMD also forecast above-normal temperatures for most regions during June. "Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal," Mohapatra said.
Heatwave Warning
The weather agency warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also likely to witness increased heatwave activity.
Oceanic Conditions and Monsoon Progress
On oceanic conditions, Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino, with the probability of El Nino conditions increasing to 82 per cent by June and crossing 90 per cent by July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season.
He further noted that rainfall in May has been four per cent above normal nationally, while cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal.
Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon advanced into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of the normal onset date. It has since progressed into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep, with conditions remaining favourable for its arrival over Kerala and the northeastern states within the next week.
Short-Term Relief Forecast
Meanwhile, the IMD on Thursday forecasted relief from severe heat across Northwest India over the next three days due to the influence of western disturbances and easterly winds, along with thunderstorms, gusty winds and hailstorm activity in several regions. (ANI)
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