The breakthrough sparked a broad biotech rally, lifting Merck, BioNTech, Arcturus, cancer-treatment developers, gene-editing stocks and biotech ETFs.
- Moderna shares soared a record 177% after its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, developed with Merck, succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial.
- Wall Street called the result a major scientific breakthrough and issued upgrades, although most new price targets remained below Moderna’s closing price.
- Jim Cramer said Moderna had “cracked the holy grail,” while Elon Musk predicted that synthetic RNA would eventually cure many diseases.
Moderna has gone from a fading Covid-era favorite to the S&P 500’s second-best-performing stock this year after a historic cancer-vaccine breakthrough sent its shares soaring 177% in their best session ever — and drew bullish reactions from Wall Street, Jim Cramer and Elon Musk.
MRNA stock closed Wednesday at $174.38 after Moderna and Merck said their personalized mRNA cancer therapy, Intismeran Autogene, succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial. Merck jumped 13% for its best session since 2009, while the news unleashed a broad rally across cancer-vaccine, immunotherapy and advanced-medicine stocks.
The enthusiasm also swept through several biotech funds, with some recording their strongest sessions in months, or even ever. The iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF (IDNA) jumped 13% for its best day on record. The ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) surged 10% for its strongest session in more than a year, while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) gained 6% for its best day in nearly five months.
Moderna has dramatically outpaced them over the past year, soaring nearly 525% compared with gains of 97% for ARKG, 92% for XBI and 83% for IDNA. It also trounced the broader market, with the Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ up 26%, the S&P 500-tracking SPY up 22% and the Dow-tracking DIA up 21%.
MRNA’s 491% year-to-date surge also makes it the S&P 500’s second-best-performing stock so far this year, trailing only Sandisk’s 561% gain.
Moderna’s Rally Leaves Wall Street Targets Behind
Analysts responded with sweeping upgrades, but their revised valuations failed to keep pace with Moderna’s rally. New targets ranged from Citi’s $60 to BofA’s $170, implying 3% to 66% downside from current levels.
BofA upgraded the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform,’ calling the result a “watershed moment” that “fundamentally changed” Moderna’s post-Covid story. Goldman Sachs retained a ‘Neutral’ rating and described the trial as the “initial unlock” for its cancer business, while Morgan Stanley stayed at ‘Equal Weight,’ saying the valuation already reflected more than $20 billion in risk-adjusted peak Intismeran sales.
RBC Capital maintained a ‘Sector Perform’ rating, calling the data a “massive scientific breakthrough” but viewing risk-reward as balanced after the rally. Citi remained at ‘Neutral,’ citing the undisclosed magnitude of the benefit, while William Blair upgraded Moderna to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ and called the result a “clear positive” for revenue diversification.
Morningstar more than doubled Moderna’s fair value estimate to $163 from $79 and raised Merck’s to $143 from $111. It lifted its 2035 Intismeran sales forecast to $16.8 billion from $7.2 billion, raised the assumed probability of melanoma approval to 100% and projected a potential launch in the first half of 2027.
Cramer And Musk Cheer Moderna’s Cancer Breakthrough
Jim Cramer delivered one of the market’s most enthusiastic reactions.
“Cracked the holy grail,” CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer said. “While there’s heavy short interest in Moderna, this vaccine is one reason why I said last month the stock was finally investable again.” He had said that Moderna’s expanding pipeline could finally give the former pandemic highflier a second act after years of declining Covid-vaccine sales.
“For the first time in a long time, the company seems like it has something to get excited about,” Cramer said last month, pointing to its growing oncology pipeline and “clear roadmap to profitability.”
Tesla and SpaceX billionaire CEO Elon Musk joined the celebration after longtime ally and investor Jason Calacanis said, “Cancer vaccines coming… LFG!” Musk responded on X, “Synthetic RNA will cure many diseases.”
Why Moderna’s Trial Is Historic
The Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial tested Intismeran with Merck’s blockbuster immunotherapy Keytruda in high-risk melanoma patients whose tumors had been surgically removed. The combination kept patients cancer-free longer and delayed the disease from spreading compared with Keytruda alone.
The companies have not disclosed the size of the benefit, and the trial will continue tracking whether patients live longer. Still, it is the first Phase 3 success for both a personalized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer treatment.
Intismeran is tailor-made using mutations found in each patient’s tumor, teaching immune-system T cells which cancer cells to hunt. Earlier five-year Phase 2b data showed that the combination cut the risk of recurrence or death by 49%. Moderna and Merck are also testing Intismeran in lung, kidney and bladder cancers.
Moderna’s Win Sets Off A Biotech Stampede
Investors treated Moderna’s win as validation for cancer vaccines, mRNA tech and other advanced treatments. BioNTech surged 22% for its best day since 2020. Moderna’s former Covid rival is developing personalized mRNA cancer therapies with Roche and Genentech, along with programs targeting lung and HPV-related head-and-neck cancers. Pure-play mRNA developer Arcturus Therapeutics jumped 25% for its best session in over a year, while traditional vaccine maker Novavax gained 11%.
Sellas Life Sciences also rose as attention shifted to its nearing Phase 3 leukemia readout. Maxim called Moderna’s result a “win for cancer vaccines” that could bode well for Sellas’ Galinpepimut-S if its Regal trial succeeds. The study had recorded 78 of the 80 events needed for final analysis as of May. Although Sellas uses different tech, both therapies train the immune system to recognize cancer targets.
ImmunityBio gained 5% and Inovio rose 8% as Moderna’s breakthrough fueled wider enthusiasm for cancer vaccines and immunotherapies. Neither uses mRNA. ImmunityBio’s approved Anktiva activates cancer-fighting immune cells, while Inovio develops DNA vaccines and treatments for HPV-related cancers.
Prime Medicine, Intellia Therapeutics, CRISPR Therapeutics, Editas Medicine and Beam Therapeutics each gained about 10% or more. Potential suppliers also rallied, with Maravai LifeSciences jumping 26%. Analysts also flagged Repligen, Danaher and Thermo Fisher Scientific as potential beneficiaries of increased investment in mRNA and cancer-vaccine manufacturing.
Merck Gets Another Shield Against Keytruda’s Patent Cliff
For Merck, Intismeran could become another weapon against Keytruda’s looming 2028 patent cliff. Keytruda generated half of Merck’s revenue last year, making the protection and extension of its oncology franchise very important. CEO Rob Davis has said the company wants to turn the patent expiration into a “shallow dip.” Pairing Keytruda with a successful personalized cancer vaccine could extend the drug’s relevance, while giving Merck access to a new class of immunotherapies.
The initial melanoma market covers 30,000 patients across the U.S. and European Union, according to Morningstar. But the potential adjuvant lung-cancer opportunity exceeds 100,000 patients across those markets.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About MRNA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward MRNA swung to a record-high 97 out of 100, or ‘extremely bullish,’ from ‘bearish’ a day earlier, as 24-hour message volume skyrocketed more than 46,200%.
One user said, “$MRNA it might dip, but it’s not going back down. If the technology plays out, this is like buying Amazon in the early 2000’s.”
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Another user said, “$MRNA 10% annual is great return, today has given about 9 years compounding 10% in a day. take profit and buy some bank shares, i am!”
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