ICC World Test Championship Final: Qualification scenarios for India, Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka

The final of the 2021-23 ICC World Test Championship is set to be held at The Oval in London in June this year. Although there are no definite finalists, for now, we have a clear picture of who is well on course to make it to the final. Currently, the most likely candidates are Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka, while defending champion New Zealand is all set to miss out. Therefore, what do the sides in contention need to do to make it to the final? We look at their qualification scenarios here and the dark horse, who has an outside chance of making it.

Australia
The Australians are nearly sure of having sealed their place in the final. All it needs to do is draw at least one more game and hope that Lanka does not win both matches in New Zealand. A 0-4 loss against India could still allow the Kangaroos to go through, provided the Kiwis win 2-0 against the Lions.

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India
The road for India is evident. It needs to win the B/G Trophy series against Australia 3-1 or better. The result would allow Rohit Sharma and co to qualify easily without having to depend on other outcomes. However, if it draws the series 2-2, India will miss out if Lanka wins in New Zealand 2-0. Collecting less than 21 points against the Kangaroos and South Africa winning 2-0 at home to the Windies would also not favour the Indians. The best India could afford is a 1-0 series win.

South Africa
Proteas' chances look bad after the 0-2 thrashing in Australia. However, the one draw Down Under could prove to be favourable, as a 2-0 win over the Windies, followed by Lanka winning not more than one in NZ and India collecting less than 21 points, could see the South Africans through, into the final.

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Sri Lanka
The Lankans have no choice but to win 2-0 in NZ. However, more than that will be needed, as they need to depend on other results, notably the B/G Trophy, where it would hope for a 0-4 loss for India, a draw, or at least a series win for Australia. If Lanka draws, it would want India to collect not more than 12 points (1-3 or 0-1 loss for India) and hope for the South Africans to collect not over 16 points (1-0 triumph).

The outsider
The team with an outside chance of making it to the final is only England. The opening three series loss for the Three Lions under then-skipper Joe Root hurt their chances immensely. However, their resurgence under Ben Stokes has been positive, having not lost under his leadership. If India and Sri Lanka lose all their remaining contests, and South Africa does not earn more than a couple of draws, it could see the English sneaking their way in to set up a one-off Ashes final date with the Aussies.