Here is the magic number EPS needs to win the floor test today

Not since Janaki Ramachandran's floor test in 1988, has Tamil Nadu witnessed such an explosive floor test. The one in 1988 was chaotic and uncontrolled and eventually descended into a farce. Janaki was confirmed as the CM amid loud protests, shouts, abuses and general pandemonium. No one, except the Speaker, seemed to be sure that she had won the vote. 

She was CM only for 23 days. On recommendations, PM Rajiv Gandhi dissolved the Tamil Nadu Assembly and called for fresh elections. Will history repeat itself now? There is certainly a high chance since everything depends on the Speaker this time as well. Panneerselvam has called for a secret ballot, while Palaniswami has asked for a voice vote. Depending on what the Speaker chooses, things may change dramatically. 

Here is the situation, by numbers - 

The Tamil Nadu legislature has 234 voting members. In the current vote, 232 will take part, as Jayalalithaa has passed away and her seat is vacant, and MK Karunanidhi is reportedly too sick to participate. 

The Opposition DMK party, with its 88 members, have stated that they will not take part in the floor test. This sentiment was shared by the IUML, which has one seat. The Congress has eight seats, and they have been ordered by the High Command to vote against the motion. 

EK Palaniswami requires 115 votes to keep his post as the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. He says he has the support of the 122 AIADMK MLAs, so by his count, he should pass the test quickly. Since the AIADMK has some 134 MLAs just by itself, technically this entire issue will be settled by the AIADMK alone - rebel or loyal. 

Palaniswami would prefer it if Opposition members abstain from voting, as this decreased the number of votes against him. For a real victory, Panneerselvam would need both AIADMK support and the entire Opposition to vote for him. 

Rumours from within the O Panneerselvam camp claims they have the support of some 11-13 MLAs, though there has been no verification of this so far. Going by this alleged claim, Panneerselvam needs 6-8 more votes from the AIADMK to beat Palaniswami just from his own party, plus the votes of the rest of opposition. 

The trust vote will happen at 11 am. 

• Palaniswami
• Sasikala
• O Panneerselvam