RBC took a more bullish view, raising its Tesla price target to $500 from $475, implying a 24% upside from current levels.
- JPMorgan said a Tesla-SpaceX merger looks “strategically coherent on paper,” citing overlap across AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space.
- RBC said robotaxi remains Tesla’s strongest opportunity, citing a $4.2 trillion addressable market.
- Regulatory risk remains a key hurdle, with JPMorgan flagging multi-jurisdictional approvals and China exposure.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) rose 0.1% overnight late Tuesday as fresh Wall Street commentary revived speculation over a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, with JPMorgan saying that the deal could make sense but face major regulatory hurdles.
TSLA stock slid 4% on Tuesday, ending the session at $ 402.90.
JPMorgan Sees Tesla-SpaceX Merger Logic
JPMorgan said a possible merger between Tesla and SpaceX looks “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to potential vertical integration across “AI, robotics, energy, transportation, & space.” The brokerage said that SpaceX’s record IPO could give it “high-value acquisition currency,” making a deal more plausible from a market-value standpoint. JPMorgan maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on Tesla.
Elon Musk is the largest shareholder of both companies, and Tesla already owns about 19 million SpaceX shares. The companies also work together across AI tools, chip development and computing infrastructure, fueling recurring speculation that Musk’s automotive, AI and space businesses could eventually be brought together.
RBC Capital took a more bullish view, raising its Tesla price target to $500 from $475, implying a 24% upside from current levels, while keeping an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm said it updated its model to include a 25%-30% premium over current trading levels to reflect a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario. RBC also said robotaxi remains Tesla’s strongest opportunity, citing a $4.2 trillion total addressable market. The firm said Tesla could create substantial value even with a minority share of that market.
TSLA-SPCX China Approval Risk Looms
However, JPMorgan flagged the “practical bottleneck of securing multi-jurisdictional regulatory approvals,” especially in markets such as China, where Tesla has major manufacturing and sales exposure.
The concern also echoes a risk highlighted by Morningstar last month: SpaceX is a major U.S. government and military contractor, while Tesla has significant auto and battery operations in China, a combination that could draw U.S. regulatory scrutiny tied to national security and supply-chain concerns.
TSLA Robotaxi Rollout Boosts Sentiment
Tesla’s robotaxi rollout also recently gained investor attention after launching robotaxis in Miami over the weekend, including unsupervised vehicles. Morgan Stanley said it expects Tesla to launch in Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa and Las Vegas by year-end, with the supervised and unsupervised fleet reaching 1,500 vehicles by the end of this year and 30,000 by 2030.
“While the absolute number of robotaxis is likely immaterial to earnings this year, the rate of change in the rollout provides more clarity for investors who may be skeptical about Tesla’s autonomous technology at scale,” Morgan Stanley said.
Tesla is set to report full second-quarter results on July 22, with investors looking for commentary on margins, robotaxi expansion, Full Self-Driving (FSD), Cybercab, Semi production and the company’s AI plans.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.
One user said, “They are now starting to promote the merger of Tesla and SpaceX as the next big thing with this stock… because that is the only real catalyst left in either of these POS's.”
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Another user said, “I still see strong upside in this week. Today wasn't the move I was looking for, but my outlook hasn't changed. As long as key levels hold, I'm still watching for a breakout tomorrow. We'll see if the buyers step back in.”
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So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's second-worst performer, down about 10%.
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