World population expected to peak at 10.3 billion by mid-2080s, UN report finds

First Published Jul 12, 2024, 10:34 AM IST | Last Updated Jul 12, 2024, 9:36 AM IST

In a significant projection, the United Nations released its latest 'World Population Prospects 2024' report, foreseeing a peak global population of approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. This peak is expected to precede a gradual decline, settling around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.

The report highlights contrasting population trajectories across nations. Notably, 63 countries, including China and Japan, have already reached their population peaks before 2024. In contrast, India and the United States are among 126 countries where population peaks are expected in the latter half of the century or beyond 2100.

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The findings highlight a global demographic shift with significant implications. Currently, one in four people reside in countries where populations have already peaked, signaling varied demographic landscapes worldwide.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy has rebounded to pre-crisis levels, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, marking an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. The report forecasts further gains, projecting a global average life expectancy of 77.4 years by the late 2050s, with a notable increase in deaths occurring at ages 80 and above.

Geographically, the report expects varied population dynamics. By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 years and older is projected to surpass 2.2 billion, exceeding the population under 18 years of age. Notably, by the mid-2030s, the number of individuals aged 80 years and older is expected to surpass infants aged one year or younger in terms of population size.

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In response to these demographic shifts, the report calls for strategic policy interventions. It stresses the need for countries to capitalize on demographic dividends through investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and job creation. Moreover, the report highlights the role of immigration in sustaining population growth in certain regions while cautioning against the challenges posed by early pregnancies, especially in low-income countries.

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