FIFA World Cup 2026: Argentina Second, Brazil Fifth! Supercomputer Says Ex-Champs Will Win

While many people are making predictions based on animals or just personal feelings, the well-known sports analytics group 'Opta' has come out with its own forecast. Their prediction is based on hard data and proper calculations.

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Not just any prediction

The FIFA World Cup group stage is over, and the knockout rounds are here. The whole football world is debating who will lift the trophy. Forget predictions by animals or gut feelings. The sports analytics group 'Opta' has released its forecast, and it's all based on solid data and numbers.

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France overtakes Argentina

After the group stage matches, Opta's supercomputer ran a massive simulation. It played out the rest of the tournament 25,000 times. After all that number-crunching, it predicts France has the best chance to win the cup this time.

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An Argentina-France final again?

If Opta's prediction comes true, we might see a repeat of the epic 2022 final between Argentina and France. Football fans still call that match one of the greatest finals in history.

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Mbappe's turn for the final laugh

Last time, Lionel Messi and his team beat France in a nail-biting penalty shootout to lift the trophy. But this time, the supercomputer says Kylian Mbappe's France will take the title back.

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Opta supercomputer's title predictions

Here's the full breakdown from Opta's supercomputer. France leads with an 18.7% chance, followed by Argentina at 16.3%. Spain is third with 13.5%, England fourth at 9.7%, and Brazil is fifth with a 6.5% chance.

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France's impressive climb

France started the tournament with a 13% chance, placing them second. But their fantastic group stage performance pushed them to the top spot with an 18.7% probability. This is the first time since they became champions in 1998 that they've won all three group matches. They will face Sweden in the Round of 32, with tough challenges from Germany or Spain possibly waiting for them later.

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A setback for Spain

Spain was the top favourite before the World Cup began, but now they have slipped to third place. Their chances are also affected because they have to face their neighbours, Portugal, in a tough pre-quarterfinal match.

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An easier path for Argentina?

Opta's analysis suggests the reigning champions, Argentina, have a relatively smooth path to the final. They face newcomers Cape Verde in the Round of 32. After that, it could be Australia or Egypt, followed by a quarter-final against one of Switzerland, Colombia, Ghana, or Algeria. The supercomputer says Messi's team won't face a major challenge until the semi-finals, where they might meet Brazil or England.

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How are the hosts doing?

Out of the three host nations, the USA has the best chance of going far. The supercomputer gives them a 42.5% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Mexico follows with a 28.3% chance, and Canada has a 25.2% chance.