A Stocktwits poll that sought to gauge the central bank’s moves for the rest of 2026 found that the majority of investors are expecting zero rate hikes this year.

  • According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, markets are nearly evenly split between a rate hike and a decision to hold interest rates steady.
  • On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he is leaning ​toward holding interest rates steady at the central bank's next policy meeting, provided inflation data shows price pressures are continuing to moderate.
  • Meanwhile, Tom Lee, Fundstrat head of research, said earlier this week in a CNBC interview that amid the possibility of a lower inflation print next week, “the odds of a September hike might actually drop to zero.”

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s policy move at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for Sept. 15-16, amid a volatile market environment plagued by uncertainty from the Iran war, rising oil prices, and cooling hiring demand. 

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he is leaning ​toward holding interest rates steady at the central bank's next policy meeting, provided inflation data shows price pressures are continuing to moderate. The Consumer Price Index for August is expected to be released on the morning of Sept. 11.

Meanwhile, Stocktwits ran a poll to gauge the central bank’s moves for the rest of 2026, with most investors expecting zero rate hikes this year. 

What Are Retail Investors Expecting?

According to the Stocktwits poll, 47% of respondents voted for zero rate hikes from the central bank this year. Meanwhile, 34% of those polled were expecting one rate hike, while 19% expects the central bank to hike rates twice this year. 

One user said, “Zero (rate hikes) not even a question might even catch that rate cut or 2.”

Another user said, “a bad  job report tomorrow will crush any hopes for rate hike.”

Market Stance On Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve has not raised rates at all in 2026, but hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium have raised rate-hike odds for September. 

According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, markets are nearly evenly split between a rate hike and a decision to hold interest rates steady. Data shows a 50.6% probability of a hold decision, up from 43% a week ago, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 49.4%, down from 57% a week ago, at the time of writing. 

According to a Reuters report, Waller said, "If there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level." 

However, he reportedly added, "If inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”

“The financial markets concluded that Waller is an owl, i.e., an FOMC voter watching incoming inflation data before deciding whether to vote for a hike at the Committee's September 15-16 meeting. We reckon that of the 12 voters on the FOMC, five are hawks (i.e., ready to hike), while six are owls,” said Yardeni Research in a post. 

Other market participants largely concur that the chances of a rate hike, at least in September’s session, is slim. 

Economist Peter Schiff said in a post on X, “Fed Governor Waller said he's inclined to keep rates on hold, but if inflation comes in hot, he'd "consider" a rate hike. Considering a hike is not the same as committing to an actual rate hike. Plus, a quarter-point hike will do nothing to cool inflation.” 

Meanwhile, Tom Lee, Fundstrat head of research, said earlier this week in a CNBC interview that amid the possibility of a lower inflation print next week, “the odds of a September hike might actually drop to zero.”

“And if the data—we have the jobs report Friday and we have a CPI report in earlier in September—I think if both are weaker, I think, you know, the market’s not going to price a hike,” he said.

How Are Markets Performing Ahead Of Jobs, Inflation Data?

On Thursday, all three benchmark indexes, i.e., the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, ended higher. 

At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up 0.09% amid ‘neutral’ sentiment. 

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was also trading higher, up 0.27% amid ‘bullish’ sentiment. 

However, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was down about 0.02% amid ‘bearish’ sentiment. 

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