CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said rising profits among recent buyers could increase the chances of profit-taking.
- On-chain data showed Bitcoin’s realized cap increased by more than $4.6 billion over the past week, pointing to improving demand.
- Short-term holders were sitting on nearly 15% unrealized profits, with their average cost basis around $70,100.
- However, the broader recovery remains early, with the 30-day change in realized cap still around 0.4%.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of renewed demand, with on-chain data indicating that capital is beginning to return to the market.
According to on-chain data by Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s realized cap increased by more than $4.6 billion over the past week. This means that the realized cap values Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved. An increase can suggest that coins are changing hands at higher prices and that new demand is entering the market.
Darkfost noted that the move resembles a pattern seen during Bitcoin’s previous bear market, when the realized cap began recovering after a prolonged decline. But the increase should not be viewed as $4.6 billion of direct cash inflows, he cautioned. Part of the rise can also come from coins being sold and repriced as holders take losses, he added.
Short-Term Holders Move Further Into Profit
Separate on-chain data showed that Bitcoin’s short-term holders were sitting at nearly 15% average unrealized profits. Their average cost basis stood near $70,100, putting recent buyers at their highest profit levels since July 2025, according to the data highlighted by Darkfost.
That could become a source of selling pressure if short-term holders decide to cash in. The on-chain data highlighted by the market analyst paints a mixed picture for Bitcoin. Improving realized cap suggests demand is beginning to recover, while growing profits among recent buyers could encourage some profit-taking.
Why This Bitcoin Market Is Different
Earlier in the week, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju told Coinage that Bitcoin’s latest rally could mark the “start point of the bull run.”
The current Bitcoin market is different from previous cycles as institutional demand is rising and absorbing traditional selling pressure, Young Ju said. In prior cycles, selling from long-term "OG" whales, miners and retail investors has helped sustain a prolonged downturn, but buying from ETFs and corporate demand tied to Michael Saylor is now counteracting those outflows, according to Ju.
He added some big early Bitcoin holders are also shifting back to a risk-on stance, citing CryptoQuant’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse indicator that measures Bitcoin moving from spot-focused exchanges like Coinbase toward futures-oriented platforms.
An increasing IFP, he said, indicated that whales are positioning for higher risk, as large holders have been opening long positions ahead of market rallies, added the CEO.
On-Chain Data Shows Buyers Stepping Back In
Another market analyst, Will Clemente, shared data pointing out strong buying activity at lower levels. A short-term basis heatmap showed a large concentration of Bitcoin supply last moved in the low $60,000 range. Clemente highlighted the data, adding that the cluster reflected “an enormous” amount of new spot Bitcoin buying around those levels.
Bitcoin’s price was trading around $78,025, up by 0.6% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, with chatter remaining at ‘high’ levels. Message volume around the apex cryptocurrency has been down over 37% over the past week on the platform.
Read also: Lawrence Lepard Calls Bitcoin A ‘Liquidity Smoke Alarm,’ Explains Why It’s Lagging Despite M2 Growth
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