Special: A year since Russia-Ukraine war started... and what happens next

As a longstanding contributor to global security, Ukraine's importance is sometimes overlooked, even though the country is now at the forefront of a resurgent great-power rivalry that many experts predict will shape international relations in the coming years.

Russia-Ukraine war: How global equations and relations changed in a year

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked a significant escalation of the eight-year conflict that began with Russia's annexation of Crimea and was a turning point for European security. A year later, defence and foreign policy analysts widely regarded the war as a major strategic blunder by Russian President Vladimir Putin. With little prospect of a diplomatic resolution in the near future, many observers fear a dangerous escalation, including Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons. As a result, Ukraine has accelerated its efforts to join Western political blocs, such as the European Union and NATO.

The Complex Roots of Russia's Interest in Ukraine

As a former cornerstone of the Soviet Union, Ukraine played a vital role in the global power dynamic of the Cold War era. Following its independence in 1991, Ukraine sought to establish itself as a sovereign state while also pursuing closer ties with Western institutions such as the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

However, deep internal divisions between a more nationalist, Ukrainian-speaking population in the west and a mostly Russian-speaking community in the east made it difficult to balance foreign relations.

The situation escalated in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and provided support to separatists in the Donbas region, leading to a violent conflict that claimed more than 14,000 lives. The conflict marked a clear shift in the global security environment from a unipolar period of US dominance to one defined by renewed competition between great powers.

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the aim of overthrowing the Western-aligned government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The roots of Russia's interest in Ukraine are complex and multifaceted, including familial ties, a large Russian diaspora, Russia's self-image as a great power, the strategic importance of Crimea, trade and energy connections, and a desire to maintain political influence in the region.

Despite the severity of the conflict, there is little hope for a diplomatic resolution in the near term, with the potential for a dangerous escalation and the use of nuclear weapons by Russia being acknowledged by many experts. The ongoing conflict has further strengthened Ukraine's push to join Western political blocs, particularly the EU and NATO.

It is clear that Russia's motivations in Ukraine have evolved over time. Initially, tensions arose due to Ukraine's ties with the EU and Russia's desire for Ukraine to join the not-yet-formed EAEU. Putin's framing of Euromaidan as a Western-backed 'fascist coup' and subsequent covert invasion of Crimea was justified as a rescue operation to protect ethnic Russians in the region. Putin similarly justified his support for separatists in southeastern Ukraine, also home to ethnic Russians and Russian speakers.

In 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which many Western analysts see as a culmination of the Kremlin's growing resentment toward NATO's post-Cold War expansion into the former Soviet sphere of influence. Russia has alleged that the United States and NATO repeatedly violated pledges they made in the early 1990s to not expand the alliance into the former Soviet bloc. 

Putin's fear that Ukraine would continue to develop into a modern, Western-style democracy that would undermine his autocratic regime in Russia and dash his hopes of rebuilding a Russia-led sphere of influence in Eastern Europe may also have been a motivating factor.

Russia's objectives in Ukraine have been described as those of a revanchist power, keen to regain its former power and prestige. By seizing Crimea in 2014, Russia solidified its control of a strategic foothold on the Black Sea, enabling it to project power deeper into the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa. Until its invasion in 2022, Russia's strategic gains in the Donbas were more fragile, but supporting the separatists had, at least temporarily, increased its bargaining power vis-à-vis Ukraine. Putin's views of the shared history between Russia and Ukraine further underscore Russia's desire to exert its influence in the erstwhile Soviet Union.

Russian Resilience: Global Impact and Geopolitical Shifts

The aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been marked by a significant increase in sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States. These sanctions have been implemented with the goal of isolating Russia from the global financial system, reducing the profitability of its energy sector, and blunting its military edge.

The US sanctions have targeted Russia's financial sector by freezing the assets of the country's central bank and barring several Russian banks from SWIFT. The US Treasury Department has also sanctioned two large Russian banks and prohibited the trading of securities issued in Russia. Furthermore, Washington has frozen the US-held private wealth of sanctioned Russian individuals, including President Vladimir Putin.

The United States has also imposed sanctions on Russia's energy sector, including banning the import of Russian crude oil, liquified natural gas, and coal and restricting U.S. investments in most Russian energy companies. Additionally, the United States and its G7 allies agreed to a cap on the price of Russian crude oil, aiming to limit it to $60 per barrel or less. Notably, the United States has refrained from sanctioning Russia's nuclear energy sector and continues to import Russian uranium.

Finally, the US Commerce Department has implemented restrictions on exports of high-tech products, such as aircraft equipment and semiconductors, to Russia, with the aim of curtailing Russia's military capabilities. The export restrictions also extend to goods that other countries produce using American technology. These sanctions have targeted key sectors of the Russian economy and sought to reduce Russia's military capabilities.

While the sanctions have inflicted some economic pain on Russia, they have not halted the country's aggression against Ukraine or caused the widespread economic collapse. Russia has adjusted to conduct much of its bilateral trade in rubles and has also turned to China and other friendly states for help in areas such as natural gas and semiconductor technology.

The EU and other governments have imposed sanctions targeting Russia's military technology, and in 2022 the EU announced an embargo on most Russian crude oil imports and joined the G7 price cap. However, some member countries of the EU are heavily reliant on Russian energy, which has made proposals to ban Russian gas imports contentious. Some countries, such as China and India, have increased their imports of Russian oil and natural gas, while others have acted as middlemen for Western goods destined for Russia.

While some sanctions supporters argue that the purpose of sanctions is to send a message rather than crush Russia's economy or end the war, others argue that sanctions inflict economic pain on normal citizens without causing the desired behavioural changes in target governments. Analysts say that Russia's importance as an exporter of many crucial commodities, including oil, fertilisers, wheat, and precious metals, makes it a particularly difficult target for sanctions.

In response to Western sanctions, Russia has retaliated by shutting down energy supplies to some European countries, halting gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, and operating a "shadow fleet" of oil tankers to continue selling its oil above the G7 price cap. Moscow has also turned to China and other friendly states for help in natural gas and semiconductor technology. While sanctions have caused some disruption, they have not had the desired effect of halting Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of Russia's participation in the New START Treaty during his annual address on February 21. Putin criticised the United States and its allies' methods of deception and habitual behaviour characterised by long centuries of colonialism and hegemony. 

He referred to several replies to officially submitted draft agreements on security guarantees to the USA and NATO. The State Duma unanimously adopted the draft law, suspending the Treaty concluded in Prague on 8 April 2010. The President of the Russian Federation will make the decision to renew the Treaty. The Foreign Ministry noted that the United States policy aims to undermine Russia’s national security, which contradicts the fundamental principles and understandings set forth in the New START’s preamble and forming its foundation.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is likely to continue to shape global affairs for the foreseeable future, especially considering the long-term commitment of all parties involved and the economic impacts of the conflict. The conflict has already resulted in significant geopolitical shifts and has also strained relations between Russia and the West, with sanctions and counter-sanctions affecting both sides. 

The recent Russian pullout from the new START treaty further underscores the volatility of global affairs and highlights the potential for escalation. As such, it is likely that the conflict in Ukraine will continue to shape international relations and security dynamics, with ripple effects throughout the global economy.

Also Read: 'Vladimir Putin's war has been a strategic failure... Ukraine still stands'