Pakistan’s potential role in the Middle East conflict is under scrutiny over its defence pact with Saudi Arabia, which mandates mutual support and was cited by its foreign minister while warning Iran against targeting Riyadh.
As the Middle East conflict escalates following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, questions are mounting about whether Pakistan could be drawn into the war due to its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia. The pact, signed in September 2025, commits both countries to treat an attack on one as an act of aggression against the other — a clause that now looms large amid rising tensions.
The potential for Pakistan’s involvement came into sharper focus after Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said he had warned Iranian officials against attacking Saudi Arabia, citing Islamabad’s defence ties with Riyadh. This is the first time an official Pakistani statement has openly connected the pact to the ongoing conflict triggered by US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. By emphasising the mutual defence clause, Dar may have signalled Islamabad’s diplomatic stance on regional security — even if he stopped short of committing military support.
The SMDA’s language is similar to NATO-style collective defence arrangements, but its application in the context of the Middle East war remains ambiguous. While the pact obliges Pakistan to come to Saudi Arabia’s aid if attacked, it does not clearly outline whether this includes offensive military operations, nor does it specify how far the commitment extends. Analysts have also raised concerns that the agreement could theoretically be interpreted to involve broader military cooperation.
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Some observers have even suggested that Saudi Arabia sought diversified security assurances amid doubts over the reliability of traditional alliances, particularly with the US. The defence pact with Pakistan was seen as a way to bolster collective deterrence against perceived threats, especially in the aftermath of attacks on Gulf infrastructure by Iranian forces.
Despite speculation, many analysts believe Pakistan may refrain from active combat in the Middle East, given its own domestic and geopolitical complexities. Islamabad faces significant internal pressures, including management of its Shia population’s sentiments, ongoing conflicts along its borders, and the potential risk of a two-front conflict should it engage militarily abroad.
Moreover, Pakistan has historically balanced its strategic relationships carefully, maintaining ties with Tehran while fostering strong links with Riyadh. Any formal military intervention against Iran could further complicate this delicate balance and have far-reaching implications for Islamabad’s foreign policy.
In the current situation, Pakistan’s role appears to be evolving more as a diplomatic interlocutor and deterrent partner rather than an active combatant. By warning Iran and reinforcing its defence commitments to Saudi Arabia, Islamabad is attempting to navigate a volatile geopolitical landscape — signalling concern over the region’s security while avoiding outright military engagement.
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