Karnataka Election 2023: Asianet News Digital Survey predicts advantage BJP

Karnataka, a state whose electoral outcome could set the tone for the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan that come later this year and for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, may end up surprising many political pundits. A mega online survey carried out by the Asianet News Network among Kannada and English-speaking digital readers has thrown up interesting observations. 

Even though much has been written about how Congress could dethrone the Bharatiya Janata Party on May 13 when the votes would be counted, the latter may just scrape through if the sentiments of the people are taken into consideration.

The Asianet News Digital Survey saw engagement of 3.5 million users, 52 per cent of whom were based out of Karnataka. Let's break down the survey findings.

THE BETTER BET

The Asianet News Digital Survey -- People's Choice -- has revealed that even though 42 per cent of the English respondents were unhappy in some form with the present Basavaraj Bommai government in power in Karnataka, 44 per cent of respondents believed that a double-engine government had helped the state achieve faster progress.

As for Kannada respondents, 35 per cent of those who took part in the survey were unhappy in some form with the present BJP government in power in the state while an overwhelming 52 per cent agreed that the double-engine government had helped the state.

Even in a scenario where no party achieved a majority in the state, 44 per cent of Kannada respondents preferred a coalition government between the BJP and the Janata Dal-Secular. Only 20 per cent of the Kannada respondents favoured an alliance government run by the Congress-JDS combine. 

However, the English respondents had a contrary view. According to 41 per cent of English respondents, a Congress-JDS alliance government would be good for the state as compared to 37 per cent for the BJP-JDS combine. To note, the Asianet News Digital Survey is unscientific by way of not specifically targeting voters in Karnataka. In fact, 48 per cent of people who took part in the survey are not from Karnataka and are most likely non-voters.

MODI BLOOM, RAHUL GLOOM

The Congress has a lot riding for it in the Karnataka assembly election. More so, it is a litmus test for the party president, Mallikarjun Kharge who hails from the state. A victory could solidify his position in the party, but a loss could lead to another wave of dissent erupting within the party and raise question marks on his ability to lead the party.

The Congress has been banking on the possible support galvanised through the Bharat Jodo Yatra undertaken by the now-disqualified MP Rahul Gandhi. However, the Asianet News Digital Survey is bound to set the cat amongst the pigeons.

An overwhelming number of respondents in both Kannada (69 per cent) and English (50 per cent) believe that the Rahul Gandhi factor will not help the Congress party win the upcoming elections.

Instead, 58 per cent of Kannada respondents and 48 per cent of English respondents believe that the Narendra Modi factor will help the BJP win the upcoming elections. 

ISSUES THAT SWING THE VOTE

RESERVATION: The Asianet News Digital Survey has predicted that 75 per cent of Kannada respondents and 58 per cent of English respondents agree that the creation of a new lateral reservation system within Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe will in some way help the more downtrodden in Karnataka. Only 21 per cent of Kannada respondents and 22 per cent of English respondents believed that the new lateral reservation system will not help the downtrodden.

In fact, 62 per cent of Kannada respondents and 48 per cent of English respondents sided with the Karnataka government's recent reservation policy right in doing away with the 4 per cent Muslim quota and distributing them equally to Lingayats and Vokkaligas.

CORRUPTION: Corruption is an issue that dominates every election in every part of the country. The story is no different in Karnataka. Forty-six per cent of Kannada respondents and 48 per cent of English respondents believed that when it came to choosing which state government's tenure was most corrupt, all government was equally culpable of failing to deal with the menace. 

However, 19 per cent of Kannada respondents found the present Bommai government more corrupt than the previous Yediyurappa administration (17 per cent votes) and the HD Kumaraswamy government (18 per cent votes) prior to that.

The English respondents, however, viewed the scenario in a completely different light. They found the Bommai government the least corrupt out of the three. While 19 per cent of English respondents termed the JD-S government under Kumaraswamy as more corrupt than the administration run by his successors Yediyurappa (16 per cent) and Bommai (17 per cent).

DEVELOPMENT: The development plank could be a major factor in preventing the BJP from sinking in the assembly elections. According to the Asianet News Digital Survey, 66 per cent of Kannada respondents and 57 per cent of English respondents believed that there had been good or some sort of industrial development accomplished under the current BJP dispensation in the state. Only 14 per cent of Kannada respondents and 25 per cent of English respondents believed the contrary.

FARMERS: A significant number of Kannada respondents -- 45 per cent -- endorsed the BJP government under Basavaraj Bommai as being farmer-friendly. However, only 39 per cent of English respondents believed that to be the case. 

The Asianet News Digital Survey has given a sharp insight into the socio-political dynamics at play in the election-bound state. The people's mandate will unfold on May 13. Watch this space