AFSPA relaxation in Northeast: Why now and what next?

Looking to make northeastern states a 'dispute free' region and to bring the people from the areas into the mainstream political development system, the government on March 31 lifted Armed Forces Special Powers Act from several districts across Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. 

It must be noted that just three days prior to that, two northeastern states -- Assam and Meghalaya -- resolved their over 50-year-old boundary dispute in six of the 12 sectors along their 885-km boundary.

The deal was brokered in a meeting between Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and his counterpart from Meghalaya, Conrad K Sangma in the presence of Union home minister Amit Shah. 

Logic behind the decision 

The government has reasoned that the situation has significantly improved in the last 7-8 years. As per official statistics, the northeastern states have witnessed a reduction of 74 per cent in insurgency incidents in 2021 in comparison to 2014. 

In the same period, the casualties among the security personnel and locals have also dropped by 60 per cent and 84 per cent respectively. The government has claimed that over 7,000 insurgents have surrendered before the security forces in the last few years and have become a part of the country's democratic setup. 

Forces can focus more on borders 

Major General Ashok Kumar (Retd), defence and security analyst said that the defence forces are more than happy with this development. 

"Defence forces are more than happy with this development. However, it will necessitate that the state police forces are empowered, strengthened and trained to take care of remnant challenges in the states so that the situation never goes to a level that involves the reintroduction of this Act and deployment of defence forces," Maj Gen Ashok Kumar said.

He also called for the situation to be reviewed annually.

"Though this demand has been met now due to certain prevailing conditions it will be a good model if a yearly review of such areas can be done in an institutional manner, wherein the inclusion and exclusion of the areas can be done till the time the Act is totally lifted," he said.

A welcome move

In the northeast states, many are appreciating that the Narendra Modi government is beginning to understand the anti-AFSPA sentiments of people from the region. 

Mayanglambam Diana, a model and social activist, welcomed the decision and said that the lifting of AFSPA from Manipur, Assam and Nagaland is great news. 

"I am hoping that the government of India will never reintroduce such a Draconian Act in North East India in future,” said Mayanglambam Diana.

Talking to Asianet Newsable, Dr Noni Arambam, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Dhanamanjuri University in Imphal, sought the removal of the Act from other parts too and urged the Centre to empower the state government in this regard. 

"Suspension of AFSPA from a certain number of police stations is actually not in conduit with what the people have been demanding for long. However, it seems that the central government is gradually accepting the fact that AFSPA probably is not needed in some of the segments in the northeast and in the valley in particular," Dr Noni Arambam said. 

The academician stated that the state governments should be given free hand to decide whether AFSPA is needed or not.

"Despite the fact that the people have been demanding the revocation of AFSPA, the central government has not been empowering the state to stop the extension of the disturbed areas provision," he said. 

Dr Arambam also urged the Modi government to implement recommendations of the Jeevan Reddy Committee report and debate them in Parliament. 

The Jeevan Reddy Committee

The UPA-I government under Dr Manmohan Singh had constituted a 5-member committee under Justice B P Jeevan Reddy to review the provisions of the act in the northeastern states.

The committee which submitted its report in 2009 had recommended that the Act should be withdrawn and appropriate provisions should be added to the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967.

The Unlawful Activities Act should be modified and mention the powers of the armed forces and CAPF forces. It had also recommended establishing a grievance cell in the districts where the armed forces are deployed.

Dr Manmohan Singh, then prime minister, said that Act requires a more humane face. "Going by the standard of the complexities that have been seen before I think that it is a long-cherished wish of the common people for having suffered a rash of AFSPA for long. This Act should not be put in suspension mode but in revocation mode. I think that is the main issue," Dr Noni Arambam added. 

On the extension of the Act to other areas, he said, "It is very ironical. It is a constitutional question when such laws are effected by the government with a retrospective claim. The government should also look into the constitutionality of the extension of the act and I have a feeling that AFSPA is actually a sort of an act that is ultra vires to the fundamental rights which is available for most of the citizens of this country, except where AFSPA is imposed."

"The impact on common people probably would be that they will begin a hope that this law will be no more in the state. But the question is whether the government is really prepared to fulfil the aspiration of the people is still a question mark," the professor said. 

Steps taken by the Modi government for peace in the Northeast

Since 2015, the government has taken multiple measures and signed a number of pacts to end insurgencies in the region. 

In 2015, the Disturbed Area Notification under AFSPA was completely removed from Tripura and Meghalaya in 2018.

In 2019, the government had signed a pact with the NLFT (SD) to bring extremists into the mainstream of society in Tripura. 

In 2020, the government signed the Bodo Accord to resolve the five-decade-long Bodo issues in Assam. 

In 2021, the Karbi-Anglong Agreement was signed that ended the long-standing dispute over the Karbi region of Assam.

AFSPA has been removed from April 1, 2022, completely from 23 districts and partially from 1 district of Assam. In Manipur, 15 police station areas in 6 districts of Manipur and a same number of police stations in 7 districts in Nagaland have been excluded from the Disturbed Area Notification from today.

In 2015, AFSPA was in force in 3 districts of Arunachal Pradesh, a 20 km belt of Arunachal Pradesh along the Assam border and in 16 police station areas in 9 other districts of the state. This has been gradually reduced and the Disturbed Areas Notification is currently applicable in only 3 districts and in 2 police station areas in 1 other district of Arunachal Pradesh.