Kerala Rains: IMD Signals Delay in Kerala Monsoon Onset Amid Changing Weather Systems

Kerala Rains: The southwest monsoon’s arrival over Kerala may be delayed this year as weather systems over the Pacific and Arabian Sea disrupt moisture flow. Rainfall activity is now expected to strengthen only after June 11

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Weather Systems Behind the Possible Delay

The expected onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is facing fresh uncertainty despite earlier predictions of an early arrival. According to the latest extended range forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kerala is likely to witness mostly dry conditions from May 28 to June 4, with only slight improvement in rainfall between June 4 and June 11.

Two major weather developments are believed to be slowing the monsoon’s progress. A developing typhoon over the western Pacific is reportedly drawing moisture away from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. At the same time, a cyclonic circulation over the Lakshadweep region is limiting rainfall activity across Kerala’s land areas.

Meteorologists believe these systems are weakening the monsoon momentum. Weather experts have indicated that while pre-monsoon showers are occurring, there is currently no strong weather system capable of pushing the monsoon further inland with intensity.

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IMD Criteria and Current Monsoon Position

Normally, the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1. Earlier this month, the IMD had forecast that the monsoon could arrive by May 26, allowing a margin of error of four days. However, the latest forecasts suggest that the conditions required for declaring monsoon onset are yet to be fully achieved.

For the official declaration of monsoon onset over Kerala, at least 60 percent of 14 designated weather stations must record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days. In addition, strong westerly winds and persistent cloudy conditions are also necessary.

Despite the delay concerns, the monsoon has continued advancing over several regions. It has already progressed into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, sections of the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and parts of northeast India.

The IMD has also stated that conditions remain favourable for further advance into more areas of southern peninsular India and northeastern states during the coming days.

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Heatwave Relief and El Niño Concerns

While monsoon progress appears slow over Kerala, changing weather conditions are expected to bring relief from intense heat across several northern regions of India. The IMD has forecast that severe heatwave conditions over northwest India are likely to reduce gradually.

At the same time, many parts of the country may witness thunderstorms, gusty winds, and isolated heavy rainfall over the next few days. Northeast India and adjoining eastern states are expected to receive significant rainfall activity, while thunderstorm conditions may continue across central and northwest India until May 31.

Climate experts are also closely monitoring the Pacific Ocean, where ENSO-neutral conditions are now shifting toward El Niño patterns. Forecast models suggest that El Niño conditions may develop during the southwest monsoon season, raising concerns about the overall strength and distribution of rainfall in the months ahead.