TSMC’s $100B Pledge Reportedly Fails to Convince Investors, Analysts – Retail Remains Bearish As Stock Dips Pre-Market

NYSE-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) (TSM) dipped nearly 1% in Wednesday’s pre-market trading after a Financial Times report suggested the company’s recently announced $100 billion U.S. investment plan reflects an “intention” rather than a “promise.”

The report highlighted that while the pledge has temporarily eased political pressure, TSMC has yet to outline specifics on how and when the investment will be deployed, leaving investors uneasy. 

It noted that TSMC’s latest pledge is significantly different from past commitments. When TSMC first pledged to build semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs) in Arizona during Trump’s first term, it provided detailed construction schedules. 

The same applied when it expanded its U.S. investment to $40 billion in 2022 and then $65 billion in April 2024.

This time, the company has merely stated that it will add three new fabs to the three already announced, along with two facilities for advanced packaging. No precise timeline or breakdown of the $100 billion expenditure has been given.

The report also pointed out that despite the scale of the investment, TSMC’s U.S. operations will remain a fraction of its global business. 

Analysts estimate that by the early 2030s, the Arizona fabs will generate no more than one-third of the company’s total revenue. 

Industry experts also warn that building six fabs simultaneously is seen as unrealistic due to labor shortages and supply chain constraints. TSMC’s Arizona plants are currently unprofitable, and analysts estimate they will require a 40% gross margin by the early 2030s to sustain overall profitability.

Additionally, TSMC’s new R&D unit in Arizona will focus on refining existing chip-making processes rather than developing next-generation technology, reinforcing the view that the company is not shifting its core research operations out of Taiwan, according to the report.

It added that some industry insiders speculate that the U.S. government may eventually pressure TSMC to support struggling domestic manufacturers like Intel. Others fear that once TSMC completes its U.S. investments, regulators could move to designate the company a monopoly and consider breaking it up.

TSMC has not yet commented on the FT report.

TSMC retail sentiment and message volume on April 2 as of 7:15 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSMC’s stock edged higher but remained in ‘bearish’ territory. 

One user echoed concerns raised in the Financial Times report, suggesting that Trump is using tariffs as leverage to pressure countries into favorable deals.

According to a Bloomberg report, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is reportedly considering withholding Chips Act grants unless companies commit to scaling up their domestic manufacturing efforts, using TSMC as an example.

TSMC’s stock has dropped nearly 15% in 2025, even though it remains up by over 22% over the past 12 months. 

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