India to overtake China as world's most populous country in 2023: UN report

According to a United Nations report released on Monday, India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country next year, with the global population expected to reach eight billion by mid-November 2022.

According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division's World Population Prospects 2022, the global population is expected to reach eight billion on November 15, 2022.

The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950 and is expected to fall below 1 per cent by 2020.

According to the United Nations' most recent projections, the world's population could reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.

It is expected to reach around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and stay there until 2100.

This year's World Population Day (July 11) falls during a milestone year in which we await the birth of the planet's eighth billionth inhabitant. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, "this is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advances in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates."

At the same time, he says it serves as a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and an opportunity to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another.

The report stated that by 2023, India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country.

Eastern and South-Eastern Asia had 2.3 billion people in 2022, accounting for 29 per cent of the global population. Central and Southern Asia had 2.1 billion, accounting for 26 per cent of the world population.

China and India had the largest populations in these regions, with over 1.4 billion people each in 2022.

More than half of the projected global population increase between now and 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.

The report further read that disparate population growth rates among the world's largest countries will alter their ranking by size; for example, India is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country in 2023.

Following the report, in 2022, India's population will be 1.412 billion, compared to China's 1.426 billion.

India, which is expected to overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2023, is expected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, far outnumbering China's 1.317 billion by the middle of the century.

According to the report, ten countries experienced a net outflow of more than one million migrants between 2010 and 2021.

Many of these outflows were caused by temporary labour movements, as in Pakistan with a net outflow of -16.5 million from 2010 to 2021, India at -3.5 million, Bangladesh at -2.9 million, Nepal at -1.6 million, and Sri Lanka at -1 million.

In other countries, such as Syria at -4.6 million, Venezuela, the Bolivarian Republic at -4.8 million, and Myanmar at -1 million, insecurity and conflict have driven the net outflow of migrants over the decade.

Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of nearly 9 years since 1990. Further mortality reductions are expected to result in average global longevity of around 77.2 years by 2050.

Nonetheless, in 2021, the least developed countries' life expectancy was 7 years lower than the global average.

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has also conducted alternative long-term population projections (IHME).

According to IHME's most recent projections, the global population will reach 8.8 billion in 2100, ranging from 6.8 billion to 11.8 billion.

The main difference between the projections of IHME and the UN is the assumptions about future fertility levels.

According to the report, IHME predicts that global fertility will decline faster than under the United Nations medium scenario.

According to IHME, the average number of children per woman will fall to 1.66 by the end of the century, while the UN predicts fertility will be around 1.84 at the same time.

In India, IHME projects a total fertility rate of 1.29 births per woman in 2100, compared to 1.69 in the United Nations medium scenario, resulting in a population 433 million lower than projected by the UN at the end of the century.

The global population aged 65 and up is expected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050.

At that point, it is expected that the number of people aged 65 and up will be more than double that of children under the age of five and roughly equal to that of children under the age of twelve.

According to the report, countries with ageing populations should adapt public programmes to the growing number of older people, such as establishing universal health care and long-term care systems and improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems.

According to the report, the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted all three components of population change. In 2021, global life expectancy at birth will be 71.0 years.

In some countries, successive pandemic waves may have resulted in short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births. In contrast, there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends in many other countries. The pandemic severely hampered all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

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