A world in ashes: The unthinkable horror of India and Pakistan's nuclear war in South Asia | Opinion

An in-depth analysis of the catastrophic human, environmental, and geopolitical consequences of a potential nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

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A New Flashpoint: The Pahalgam Attack

The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, which claimed 26 lives, mostly tourists, in Jammu and Kashmir, has pushed India and Pakistan to the brink of a perilous conflict. These nuclear-armed neighbours are hurling fierce accusations, with India blaming Pakistan for supporting terrorism and Pakistan warning of an imminent Indian military strike. The tension echoes the 2019 Pulwama crisis, when nuclear threats loomed large. Pakistan’s ambiguous nuclear policy and India’s no-first-use stance fuel uncertainty in this volatile situation. But what if this spirals into a nuclear war? The devastation would be catastrophic, surpassing history’s worst tragedies and threatening humanity. We must grasp the horrifying consequences to prevent this disaster.

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Arsenals of Annihilation: India and Pakistan’s Nuclear Power

India and Pakistan wield formidable nuclear arsenals. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in March 2025 estimates India has 180 nuclear warheads, overtaking Pakistan’s 170, a shift noted in the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2024 report. India’s nuclear programme, launched in 1974, includes warheads yielding 10 to 40 kilotons, with some estimates suggesting up to 200 kilotons. Pakistan, nuclear since 1998, relies on tactical warheads of 5 to 12 kilotons to counter India’s stronger conventional forces. Both nations are advancing their arsenals, with India spending $2.7 billion and Pakistan $1 billion on nuclear programmes in 2023, per the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).

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Strike Capabilities: A Look at India’s Missile Systems

India’s missile systems are sophisticated and far-reaching. The Agni series—Agni-I (700 km), Agni-II (2,000 km), Agni-III (3,200 km), Agni-IV (4,000 km), and Agni-V (5,000–8,000 km)—can deliver nuclear warheads across Pakistan and into China. The Agni-V, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), tested with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) in 2024, can strike multiple targets. The Prithvi-II (350 km) and developing Nirbhay cruise missile (1,000 km) are nuclear-capable. Sea-based systems, like the INS Arihant submarine with K-15 (750 km) and K-4 (3,500 km) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), complete India’s nuclear triad—land, air, and sea. These can target any Pakistani city, from Karachi to Islamabad, and even China’s Beijing.

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Pakistan’s Deterrent Doctrine and Missile Arsenal

Pakistan’s missiles are designed to deter India. The Shaheen series—Shaheen-I (750 km), Shaheen-IA (900 km), Shaheen-II (2,000 km), and Shaheen-III (2,750 km)—can strike anywhere in India, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The Ghauri (1,300 km), based on North Korea’s Nodong, and the short-range Nasr (70 km) for battlefield use are nuclear-capable. The Babur cruise missile (700 km) and Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile (350–600 km), deployed via Mirage III aircraft, add versatility. While Pakistan lacks nuclear submarines, it is exploring sea-based options with the Babur-3 for conventional submarines. These can hit Indian cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, ensuring a devastating counterstrike.

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Fire and Fallout: The Human Cost of a Nuclear Exchange

A nuclear war would unleash unimaginable horrors. A 2019 Rutgers University study estimates that if India used 100 warheads and Pakistan 150, 50 to 125 million people could die instantly—far exceeding World War II’s toll. This dwarfs the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, when the US dropped atomic bombs. The Hiroshima bomb, “Little Boy,” had a 15-kiloton yield and killed 70,000–140,000 people, while the Nagasaki bomb, “Fat Man,” with 20 kilotons, killed 35,000–74,000. To understand the scale today, imagine Pakistan launching a 20-kiloton nuclear warhead, similar to Nagasaki’s, on Delhi. The blast would destroy an area of about 7 square kilometres, killing 500,000–1 million people instantly in this densely populated city. Hospitals, homes, and infrastructure would be obliterated, with fires raging for days. Now, picture India retaliating with a 40-kiloton warhead on Karachi. This would devastate 10 square kilometres, killing 600,000–1.2 million people, turning Pakistan’s largest city into a smouldering ruin. These are just single strikes—multiple warheads would multiply the horror. Modern warheads, ranging from 12 to 100 kilotons, would cause far greater destruction. When a nuclear blast occurs, the fireball reaches temperatures of about 10 million°C—hotter than the sun’s core—within a millionth of a second. This extreme heat lasts a fraction of a second, incinerating everything within kilometres, vaporising people instantly. The thermal radiation, persisting for a few seconds, causes severe burns, igniting fires that kill many through burns or smoke inhalation. The shockwave, travelling faster than sound, flattens buildings and crushes bodies, causing fatal internal injuries like ruptured organs. Within moments, millions in cities like Delhi or Karachi would perish, with survivors suffering agony from burns, injuries, and radiation poisoning, which causes nausea, hair loss, and organ failure.

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After the Bombs: Nuclear Winter and Global Collapse

The aftermath would be equally devastating. The explosions would release 16 to 36 million tons of soot, blocking 20 to 35% of sunlight and triggering a “nuclear winter.” Earth’s temperature would drop by 3.6 to 9°F (2 to 5°C), and rainfall would decrease by 15 to 30%. Food production would collapse, with crops failing by 15 to 30% and ocean productivity dropping by 5 to 15%. Billions worldwide could face starvation, not just in South Asia but in distant nations. Radioactive fallout would poison air, water, and soil, causing cancers, birth defects, and genetic mutations for generations. Parts of the South Pacific would become uninhabitable, and recovery would take over a decade due to lingering atmospheric smoke. Survivors of the initial blast would face slow, painful deaths from radiation sickness.

The global impact would be catastrophic. The economy would collapse as trade and energy supplies, especially in Asia with its 2.8 billion people, halt. The involvement of China, a Pakistani ally, could escalate the conflict, potentially involving half the world’s population. No country would escape the resulting food shortages and economic turmoil. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, though devastating, were confined to Japan; a modern nuclear war would have no such limits, affecting the entire planet due to today’s interconnected world.

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Near Misses: Past Clashes That Nearly Sparked War

History warns of the risks. In 1986-87, India’s Operation Brasstacks mobilised troops near the border, nearly sparking war, with Pakistan hinting at its nuclear capability. In 2019, after the Pulwama attack, US intervention averted a nuclear clash, as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed. Today, the US and Gulf nations are urging calm, but their influence is limited. India’s no-first-use policy promises massive retaliation if attacked, while Pakistan’s unclear stance allows for first use if its survival is threatened. Recent warnings, like Imran Khan’s “nuclear flashpoint” remark, highlight the danger of miscalculation.

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The Path to Peace: Diplomacy Over Destruction

Preventing this catastrophe demands urgent action. The 1999 Lahore Memorandum, signed by both nations, called for dialogue and arms control, but it’s been ignored. The 2017 UN Treaty to ban nuclear weapons, though unsigned by India and Pakistan, reflects global fears. International mediation, perhaps by the UN or US, is crucial. India and Pakistan must resume talks, addressing the Kashmir dispute with global support. Confidence-building measures, like the 1989 pact not to attack nuclear facilities, need strengthening. Both nations must choose peace over pride.

The Pahalgam attack is a stark reminder of the stakes. India and Pakistan, with their deadly arsenals, stand at a crossroads. A nuclear war would leave no winners, only a shattered world haunted by the ghosts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The cost—millions incinerated, crushed, or poisoned, billions starving, and a planet in chaos—is too horrific to contemplate. It’s time for dialogue, not destruction, to secure a future where such a nightmare remains unthinkable.