Iran faces its gravest unrest in years as protests spread nationwide. An opposition outlet claims 12,000 killed in a brutal crackdown, far exceeding official estimates, raising fears over the regime’s future.
Iran’s ruling establishment is facing what analysts describe as its most serious internal challenge in years, as nationwide protests stretch into a third week amid sharply conflicting claims over the scale of the crackdown.
Iran International, an Iranian opposition website based abroad, has claimed that at least 12,000 people were killed by Iranian security forces in recent days, calling it “the largest killing in Iran’s modern history.”
The figure is far higher than commonly reported estimates, which so far place the death toll at several hundred, according to human rights organisations.
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Iran International said its information was compiled and cross-referenced from multiple sources, including individuals close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the Iranian presidential office, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), medical officials and eyewitnesses.
“This data was examined and verified through multiple stages and in accordance with strict professional standards before being announced,” the outlet said.
According to the report, the killings were carried out mostly by the Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces, acting on orders from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with most deaths occurring during the nights of January 8 and 9. It said the violence was organised and not the result of “unplanned” or “scattered clashes,” adding that the estimate reflects figures held by Iran’s own security authorities.
Iran International also said that most of the victims were under the age of 30, underscoring the youth-led nature of the unrest.
Iranian authorities have not responded publicly to the claims.
Protests grow beyond economic anger
The protests, now entering their third week, began with strikes at Tehran’s historic bazaar on December 28 before escalating into mass demonstrations across Tehran and several other cities.
What started as anger over economic grievances has evolved into open calls for an end to Iran’s clerical system, which has ruled the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
According to analysts, the protests are notable not just for their size but for their explicitly political demands.
“These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris, told AFP.
Despite the unrest, Iran’s leadership remains publicly defiant. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 86, appeared in public on Friday to denounce the protests, while authorities organised counter-rallies, drawing thousands of supporters on Monday.
Crackdown tightens, information remains scarce
Iranian authorities have imposed a multi-day internet shutdown, making it difficult to independently verify the scale of protests or casualties. Fewer videos and eyewitness accounts have emerged compared to past uprisings.
Rights groups say hundreds have been killed, but the lack of connectivity has fuelled uncertainty and competing narratives.
“The sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus” makes it unclear whether the protests can unseat the leadership, Grajewski said.
The current unrest recalls previous major protest waves, including the 2009 post-election demonstrations and the 2022-2023 protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in custody after her arrest for allegedly violating Iran’s dress code.
Sustained protests but no tipping point yet
Analysts say the protests’ future hinges on whether they can reach critical mass.
“A key factor is simply the size of protests; they are growing, but have not reached the critical mass that would represent a point of no return,” said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa.
The movement’s lack of durable organisation remains a weakness.
“Protesters still suffer from not having durable organised networks that can withstand oppression,” said Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Yale University.
He said one potential turning point could be strikes in strategic sectors, but added that this would require leadership that is currently absent.
No visible cracks in the elite
While street mobilisation is crucial, analysts stress that elite defections are often decisive in regime change—and so far, none are visible.
“At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime. Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse,” Grajewski said.
Iran’s parliament, president and the IRGC have all publicly lined up behind Khamenei.
Jason Brodsky, policy director at US-based group United Against Nuclear Iran, described the protests as “historic,” but added: “It’s going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall,” including defections within the security services and political elite.
External pressure and military risks
The crisis is unfolding against a tense international backdrop.
US President Donald Trump, who has threatened retaliation over the crackdown, announced 25 percent tariffs on Iran’s trading partners on Monday. While the White House says Trump is prioritising diplomacy, it has not ruled out military strikes.
The US briefly joined Israel’s 12-day war against Iran in June, a conflict that killed several top Iranian security officials and forced Khamenei into hiding, exposing what analysts say was deep Israeli intelligence penetration.
“A direct US military intervention would fundamentally alter the trajectory of the crisis,” Grajewski said.
Juneau added: “The regime is more vulnerable than it has been, domestically and geopolitically, since the worst years of the Iran-Iraq war.”
Opposition remains divided
Opposition figures abroad have stepped up calls for protests, including Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s last shah. Pro-monarchy slogans have appeared at demonstrations.
But analysts say the Iranian diaspora remains deeply divided.
“There needs to be a leadership coalition that truly represents a broad swathe of Iranians and not just one political faction,” Azizi said.
The question of succession
Khamenei has ruled since 1989, following the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini. Though he survived last year’s war with Israel, uncertainty surrounds who might succeed him.
Possible scenarios include the rise of his influential son Mojtaba Khamenei, or power shifting to a collective leadership—potentially dominated by the IRGC.
Such an outcome, Juneau warned, could lead to “a more or less formal takeover by the Revolutionary Guards.”
For now, Iran’s future hangs between entrenched repression and mounting public anger—its outcome still uncertain, but its stakes unmistakably high.
(With inputs from AFP)
