With just a few hours before the result of the Malappuram by-poll, all the major fronts in the state have expressed confidence of coming out victorious. Even though Malappuram by election has not much of significance in the national level, it will surely have some fallout in Kerala politics. As many as 9,36,315 votes polled in this election which comes over 71% of the total voters.

Also read: Malappuram by-polls: Significance of an inconsequential election


Newsable takes you through three possibilities in Malappuram by-polls.

What if BJP wins?

The victory of BJP-NDA candidate Sreeprakash in Malappuram is highly unlikely. The BJP’s vote share in the 2014 general election in Malappuram was just over 7% (64,705 votes) while the Muslim League candidate E Ahamed won over half of the total votes polled.

Also read: Malappuram by-polls: Muslim League hopes to win big, LDF dreams repeat of 2004


 But if he wins, despite all odds and by surpassing the UDF and the LDF, it would be ushering in a new era in Kerala politics. Known as the bastion of Muslim League, Malappuram is a stronghold of the Congress-led UDF. If the BJP registers a great show  in the Muslim dominated constituency and pulls off a victory by consolidating non-LDF, non-UDF votes, it would make national headlines.  

Related: BJP candidate offers halal meat, good slaughterhouses before Malappuram bypoll

Even if the BJP scores over one lakh votes, it could unsettle the hopes of both UDF and LDF. “We have worked really hard and the public response from the voters was overwhelming,” Sreeprakash said.  “The results would be beneficial for the growth of the NDA in Kerala,” he added.


What if the Faisal defeats Kunjalikkutty?

If MB Faisal, the young candidate of LDF emerges victorious, even by a thin margin, it would be shocking for the UDF. The LDF has expressed confidence that it could repeat the victory of TK Hamsa in Manjeri Lok Sabha seat that included Malappuram in 2004.

MB Faisal

An LDF win would be a big relief for the Pinarayi Vijayan government, which is under severe criticism from the opposition. This is the first by-election in Kerala after Pinarayi Vijayan ministry assumed power in May 2016.

If Faisal manages to bring down the victory margin of the UDF when compared to the 2014 general election, it could be upsetting for the UDF.




If Kunjalikkutty wins by a margin of over 2 lakh votes.

Speaking to Asianet News on Monday morning, UDF candidate and Muslim League national general secretary PK Kunjalikkutty, was not ready to predict his vote share. However, he was confident of repeating the victory of late E Ahamed, one of the tallest Muslim League leaders, in 2014. Ahamed won with a margin of over 1.94 lakh votes.


 In 2014, despite the displeasure of a section of young party workers of the Muslim League against Ahamed's candidature, the former union minister won over half of the total votes polled, registering a margin of over 1.94 lakh votes.  PK Sainaba of the CPM finished far behind with 28.5% of votes while the BJP harnessed 7.6% of votes.

The CPM leadership had stated that the election result would be an assessment of the Pinarayi Vijayan government. If Kunjalikkutty raises the vote share, the critics of Pinarayi Vijayan would gain more strength.