India Monsoon Alert: IMD Warns of Weak Monsoon as Super El Nino Builds in Pacific; Check Forecast

Indian Monsoon Alert: India may face a difficult monsoon season in 2026 as a strong El Niño develops in the Pacific. While several states could struggle with drought and heatwaves, some coastal regions may see flooding rains

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Weak Monsoon May Trigger Drought Across Northern and Central India

India’s 2026 monsoon season is shaping up to be one of the most challenging in recent years. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted below-normal rainfall, with the southwest monsoon likely to remain at 92% of the long-period average.

Climate experts believe a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is the main reason behind this concern. El Niño weakens the moisture-carrying monsoon winds that India depends on every year between June and September.

States such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra are expected to face the biggest rainfall shortages. Regions including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Jabalpur, Rewa and Chambal may witness prolonged dry spells during the peak monsoon months of August and September.

For millions of farmers who rely entirely on seasonal rains for kharif crops, lower rainfall could mean crop damage, water shortages and financial stress.

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Some Cities Could Face Floods Instead of Drought

While several parts of India may struggle with weak rainfall, some coastal regions are expected to witness the opposite extreme. El Niño often shifts rainfall patterns, causing intense rain events over parts of southern India.

Cities like Chennai and coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh could receive unusually heavy rainfall later in the monsoon season. Weather experts warn that sudden cloudbursts and urban flooding may become a major concern if rainfall intensifies over short periods.

India has seen similar patterns during previous strong El Niño years. In 2015, Chennai experienced devastating floods after receiving excessive rainfall within a few days, leading to large-scale destruction and loss of life.

This year, authorities are closely monitoring the evolving weather systems to avoid a repeat of past disasters.

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Heatwaves, Water Stress and Farmer Anxiety Likely to Rise

A weaker monsoon usually brings another major problem — prolonged heat. Regions already experiencing high temperatures, including Delhi-NCR and western India, may continue to face extreme heatwave conditions if rainfall remains deficient.

Experts say the second half of the monsoon season will be crucial. If El Niño strengthens further by August, rainfall deficits could increase sharply across many states.

There is, however, a small ray of hope. Climate models indicate that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may develop later in the season. This weather pattern can sometimes improve rainfall over India and reduce the impact of El Niño.

Even so, uncertainty remains high. With nearly 60% of Indian agriculture dependent on rainfall, the coming months will be critical for farmers, water supplies and food production across the country.