President’s rule in Karnataka will be a body blow for state BJP

CM Siddaramaiah’s slow but steady approach of including everyone before taking the decision is clearly making the Congress popular. Even on social media, the state Congress is receiving a fair bit of support, with many saying “Take a decision, we are with you.”

 

The JD(S) has been struggling to regain its lost base in Karnataka, after bad performances in the last two Assembly elections. Now it seems like the party’s gesture during the Cauvery fight has bought it dividends, at least for now, in the minds of voters.

 

Voters appear to be appreciating the involvement of JD(S) supremo and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and party chief and former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy in the Cauvery issue.

 

If the government takes a decision not to release water, this might end up with the Judiciary dissolving the Assembly and imposing President’s rule in Karnataka. 

 

But this might prove as a positive development for both the Congress and the JD(S)!

 

Let’s see how will it profit the Congress:

 

CM Siddarmaiah built in his political career in the JD(S), under the guidance of Deve Gowda. But he joined the Congress in 2005 after a bitter disagreement with Deve Gowda. Keeping this in mind, Siddaramaiah’s strategy to meet Deve Gowda personally and asking him to address the all-party meeting is already a minor trump card.

 

To add to that, if Siddaramaiah loses his government fighting for Cauvery water, he will be held high esteem by the people of Karnataka. There is also the added benefit that should the water be released during President's rule; Siddaramaiah can rightfully say he stepped aside rather than take a decision opposed by most Kannadigas. That is two feathers in his hat already. 

 

These are positive developments for the party, which will bear fruit when the Congress goes to the polls the next time.

 

How the situation will help the JD(S):

 

The JD(S) might make its 'achievement' in the Cauvery struggle center-stage and might once again make Deve Gowda their star campaigner. Deve Gowda had not taken part in the all-party meeting, irrespective of the issue, since 1996. But he made an exceptionally significant move by not only agreeing to speak to Siddaramaiah in his residence but also extending his support to the government in the water issue. 

 

This can be a major point to assure Kannadigas that JD(S) is back and will do anything for the welfare of people. The JD(S) can even put forth the point that Siddaramaiah took the decision of not releasing water to Tamil Nadu only after speaking to Deve Gowda, and hence the credit should be given to the JD(S). 

 

Both plus points for the party that has been struggling to re-capture Kannadiga attention. 

 

And...the BJP?

The one party which will be at a loss no matter what happens is the BJP. 

 

If President's rule is imposed, the Centre will support it as the BJP-led Union Government would certainly not be opposed to the Congress losing its lone 'big' state in India. But the Karnataka state BJP will face the reverse - a resurgent Congress party that took the blow for the sake of the Cauvery, while the BJP was conspicuously missing during the struggle. 

 

Also, their absence from all-party meet might haunt them in the elections too, as the state party's credibility has taken a severe blow.

 

Should this government be dissolved and elections held anytime soon, the BJP will certainly lose more than it will win. 

 

The BJP's best bet currently is to hope the government stands for the remaining 18 months of this term - giving people time to forget the past few days.