Investors will focus on Starlink profits, AI revenue, and the company’s rapidly rising AI spending.
- Musk backed a post claiming SpaceX could add revenue equal to Tesla’s within 12 to 24 months.
- Based on Tesla’s latest sales, that would mean $95 billion to $104 billion in added annual revenue.
- Koyfin expects Q2 revenue of $6.82 billion, EBITDA of $2.05 billion, and an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) edged 0.4% higher overnight heading into Monday as investors looked ahead to the company’s first earnings report as a public company, with CEO Elon Musk fueling optimism about the company’s long-term growth.
SPCX stock has endured a difficult few weeks in the market. After pricing its IPO at $135 per share and briefly climbing to nearly $200, SpaceX shares have retreated sharply, recently trading around $108 on Friday — about 20% below the IPO price and 46% below their post-listing peak.
SpaceX's AI Bet Faces First Earnings Test
Over the weekend, Musk replied, “Few understand,” to an X post suggesting SpaceX could add revenue equivalent to an entire Tesla over the next 12 to 24 months. The results, due after the market close on Aug. 4, come after a volatile start to life as a public company, with investors closely watching whether SpaceX can justify its premium valuation amid heavy AI spending.
Based on Tesla's latest financials, the claim implies SpaceX could add $95 billion to $104 billion in annualized revenue over the next one to two years. Tesla generated $94.8 billion in revenue in 2025. The comment comes as investors increasingly view SpaceX as more than a launch and satellite company, with growing attention on its AI infrastructure ambitions alongside its Starlink broadband business.
SpaceX's earnings release will be closely scrutinized as it marks the company's first quarterly report since its June IPO. According to Koyfin consensus estimates, Wall Street expects second-quarter (Q2) revenue of $6.82 billion, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.05 billion, and an adjusted loss of $0.23 per share.
Starlink Remains SpaceX’s Earnings Engine
Morningstar expects investors to focus on two businesses in particular: Starlink and AI. Starlink remains SpaceX's profit engine, generating nearly $1.2 billion in profit during the first quarter, even as the broader company continued to post losses. The firm said subscriber growth will be a key metric, projecting subscriber expansion of 93% this year following explosive growth over the previous two years.
Owens noted that Q2 AI revenue should include infrastructure rental payments from customers such as Anthropic, Google and potentially Reflection, which could provide upside relative to expectations. However, he also cautioned that AI capital spending continues to accelerate rapidly and is unlikely to generate profits in the near term, leaving investors focused on whether long-term returns can ultimately justify the investment.
Beyond AI, Owens said Starship remains central to the company's long-term investment thesis since its significantly larger payload capacity could further strengthen SpaceX's dominance in commercial launches.
Jefferies Defends SpaceX’s Governance Structure
While earnings dominate the near-term narrative, another debate surrounding SpaceX is dividing investors. Institutional investors and several ESG-focused funds have criticized the company's governance structure, pointing to Musk's control of more than 80% of voting rights while simultaneously serving as CEO, chief technology officer and chairman. Jefferies global head of sustainability and transition strategy Aniket Shah said that these concerns are being overstated, according to a Bloomberg report.
"The idea that there's an— in quotes—acceptable form of good governance is one that I highly question," Shah, arguing that rigid governance checklists often overlook the realities of high-performing founder-led businesses. He also rejected suggestions that SpaceX's post-IPO weakness validates governance concerns.
"I don't think the recent performance of SpaceX over the last few weeks has anything to do with governance issues," Shah said, adding that broader sentiment toward AI investments is a more likely explanation. Shah further said that investors relying on strict governance screens might have missed some of the market's biggest winners, pointing to Meta and Tesla as examples of companies that created substantial long-term shareholder value despite unconventional governance structures.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a day ago amid ‘normal’ message volume.
One user said, “$SPCX trillion dollar valuation and loses money every quarter. this one will go down in history books. Fair value $10 per share if that. you think Elon Musk care about you? $75 post earnings”
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Another user said, “$SPCX The ER will be strong and no insider will sell at this price, bet how the price will move? Best time to buy now.”
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SPCX stock has declined 33% so far this year.
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