Morningstar says Nio's premium brand and battery-swapping network could support long-term growth.
- The brokerage expects annual deliveries to more than double from about 326,000 in 2025 to 670,000 by 2030.
- Nio's core brand delivered 20,008 vehicles in July, up 58% year-over-year, with an average selling price of 434,600 yuan.
- The ES8 accounted for more than half of July's core-brand deliveries, while the ES9 topped 10,000 deliveries in about a month.
U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) capped their strongest week in four months as fresh delivery momentum and an upbeat Morningstar valuation revived the bull case for the Chinese EV maker.
Nio's U.S.-listed shares rose 9% last week, although the stock still ended July down 4%, marking its third straight monthly decline.
Morningstar Sees 29% Upside For NIO
Morningstar values Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares at HK$50, compared with a Friday close of HK$38.82, implying a 29% upside. The firm said “shares are undervalued” and noted that Nio has “better delivered on its targets over the past year.” First-quarter revenue more than doubled, while vehicle margin recovered to a multiyear high of 19%. These gains also prompted Morningstar to lift its longer-term forecasts.
The brokerage firm expects annual deliveries to rise from about 326,000 vehicles in 2025 to 670,000 by 2030. Revenue, meanwhile, is projected to grow at an annualized rate of about 19%. Morningstar also expects 2027 to be Nio’s first profitable year. It sees operating margin improving from negative 16.9% in 2025 to positive 2.7% by 2030 as higher volumes help spread fixed costs across a larger business.
Nio’s premium positioning and battery-swapping network are also key to its forecasts. Its battery-as-a-service model can lower a vehicle’s upfront purchase price by an estimated 15% to 30%, while the growing swap network could make ownership more convenient for buyers outside China’s largest cities.
Even so, Morningstar assigns Nio a “Very High” uncertainty rating and says the company has no economic moat, arguing that it is still “too early” to know whether Nio’s brand strength and competitive advantages will hold up over time. The firm also warned that continued investment could require more financing and potentially dilute shareholders.
Nio's Premium Strategy Gains Traction
Nio’s core brand recorded an average transaction price of 434,600 yuan ($64,000) in July. This was slightly below June, but still well above the broader Chinese passenger-vehicle market. The brand delivered 20,008 vehicles during the month, up 58% from a year earlier. Based on the average transaction price, it works out to 8.7 billion yuan in estimated vehicle revenue.
The ES8 did much of the heavy lifting. It accounted for 10,286 deliveries, more than half of the core brand’s July volume. A newly launched five-seat version helped push monthly sales back above 10,000 units. The newer ES9 is also gaining traction. Launched in late May with a starting price of 498,000 yuan, the flagship SUV surpassed 10,000 deliveries in about 30 days, a record pace for battery-electric models priced above 500,000 yuan in China.
Across Nio, Onvo and Firefly, total July deliveries reached 35,934 vehicles, up 71% from a year earlier. Through the first seven months of 2026, deliveries climbed nearly 68% to 227,057 vehicles.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NIO was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
One user said, “$NIO I just keep buying, because I believe in this company and I see that it is growing and I see where it is going.”
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Another user said, “$NIO this should be at 100. Tell me another automaker that has a 70%yoy growth and on track to be profitable this year. Great margins, swap revenue and chips. Margin squeeze is inevitable.”
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Nio’s U.S.-listed stock has risen 0.2% over the past year.
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