Chennai Weather LATEST Update: Dry Spell Dominates as Northeast Monsoon Weakens Across Tamil Nadu

Chennai Weather LATEST Update: After six consecutive years of normal or excess rainfall, Tamil Nadu is set to end the 2024 Northeast monsoon with slightly below-normal rain, as prolonged dry spells dominate and only isolated showers are expected

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NORTHEAST MONSOON ENDS SIX-YEAR SURPLUS STREAK

Tamil Nadu is likely to conclude the Northeast monsoon season with marginally below-normal rainfall, breaking a six-year run of normal or surplus precipitation since 2019. The State has recorded 42.7 cm of rainfall so far, about 3 percent lower than the seasonal average of 43.8 cm. Meteorological officials clarified that this still falls within the IMD’s “normal” range, as deviations up to 19 percent are not classified as deficit. However, the absence of widespread rainfall in the final phase has tilted the season slightly below expectations.

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PROLONGED DRY SPELL AND LIMITED RAINFALL AHEAD

The Regional Meteorological Centre indicated that the monsoon is currently in a weak and dry phase, leading to extended dry weather across most parts of Tamil Nadu. A trough in the easterlies over the southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to bring mild rainfall mainly to south Tamil Nadu and Western Ghats districts, with isolated showers possible till January 4. Weather conditions are still being monitored to officially declare the withdrawal of the monsoon, as in previous years rainfall has extended into January.

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ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS AND COOLER CONDITIONS

Weather experts observed that an unusually high number of dry days, especially in November, played a key role in suppressing rainfall this season. The absence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean during November and December significantly reduced cloud formation. While Cyclone Ditwah briefly boosted rainfall in early December, it was not enough to revive widespread showers. High-pressure systems have since brought cooler and drier conditions, with minimum temperatures expected to dip further and frost warnings continuing for higher regions such as Kodaikanal and the Nilgiris.