ICC World Test Championship: Here's how India can still qualify for the final despite Indore Test loss

Humbled in Indore, an outright victory in Ahmedabad will seal India's place in the 2021-23 ICC World Test Championship (WTC) Final against Australia. Still, if Rohit Sharma's team loses or plays a draw, its fate will depend on the outcome of the Sri Lanka-New Zealand series. Australia, under its nine-wicket win in Indore, has already qualified for the grand finale at The Oval in London from June 7-11.

Australia sits atop the WTC table with 68.52 percentage points (PCT). Percentage points are calculated when points earned by a team are divided by the points contested for. A side makes 12 points for a win, four for a draw and six in case it's a tie. Today, Australia has 148 points by 11 wins and four draws from 18 matches. Playing for 216 points on offer, it has a PCT of 68.52. Even if Australia lost the fourth and final Test against India, it would remain on top with 64.91 PCT (148/228 100).

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What happens to India?
India's PCT is 60.29 after earning 123 points in 17 Tests (10 wins and two draws). India has lost a few points during this cycle due to a slow over-rate. If India wins the last Test, its PCT will go up to 62.5 with 135 points from a maximum of 216 on offer (18 Tests). It will then retain its second position and will qualify for the final.

However, in case of a defeat, India's PCT will drop to 56.94, and then, it will have to depend on the result of Sri Lanka's away series against New Zealand. In case of a draw, India's PCT will drop to 58.79, and even then, it will have to wait for the result of the Sri Lanka-New Zealand series. Ditto in the case of a tie where India's PCT will be 59.72.

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How can Sri Lanka qualify?
Sri Lanka's only shot at the final qualification will depend on a 2-0 victory in New Zealand, one of the most challenging away assignments for sub-continental teams. Lanka's current PCT is 53.33, with 64 points from possible 120 (10 Tests). If India happens to lose, draw or tie the final Test, and Lanka wins the series 2-0, its PCT will be 61.11 with 88 points from a maximum of 144 points at stake. But, if Lanka draws even a game and wins 1-0, its maximum PCT will be 55.55, less than what India (56.94) will have even if it loses the final Test.

(With inputs from PTI)