India to be 5 trillion dollar economy by FY'26: CEA Nageswaran
CIA V Anantha Nageswaran said that the economic outcomes would follow automatically as efforts are undertaken in terms of policies, investments and private sector decisions.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has said India has the potential to become a five trillion dollar economy by 2025-26 and a seven trillion dollar economy by 2030, depending on exchange rate fluctuation. To note, the country's economy is estimated to touch the $3.5 trillion mark by March 2023.
Speaking to the news agency PTI after the release of the Economic Survey 2022-23 prepared by him and his team, Nageswaran said that the economic outcomes would follow automatically as efforts are undertaken in terms of policies, investments and private sector decisions.
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'Depending on how the dollar-rupee (pair) behaves and what our nominal GDP growth in rupee terms is, $5 trillion is something that can happen by 2025-26 or 2026-27 and $7 trillion by 2030,' he said.
Citing numbers from the last three decades, Nageswaran said that the country's GDP in dollar terms had grown at a very healthy annual average rate of 9 per cent. This is despite the fact the rupee has depreciated these years against the US dollar, he said, adding that if the rupee actually appreciates against the dollar over the next few years, India would be in a position to achieve that GDP higher than 9 per cent in dollar terms.
'Some of our goals may be reachable within a shorter timeframe than we imagined right now. So, I think achieving a $7 trillion GDP by 2030 is quite feasible,' he said.
Observing that the downside risk is higher than the upside, Nageswaran said, 'It is good to have a projection that is realistic, strive to exceed that rather than make statements which do not have any margin of safety. Given the kind of environment we have, we need to have a margin of safety in our projections, and that is good at risk management as well.'
He said most of the challenges faced by India today are because of the global economic uncertainties and the geopolitical situation.
Talking about inflation, the Chief Economic Advisor termed it as a concern in 2022, and the government managed that quite well. The Reserve Bank of India expects inflation to be well-behaved and stay within the target band of 6 per cent in the coming financial year beginning in April. That, he said, seems to be a very realistic assumption.
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