Budget 2023: Key highlights of Modi govt's Economic Survey
The Economic Survey for 2022-23 has pegged India's GDP growth for the next fiscal 2023-24 in a broad range of 6-6.8 per cent. The Survey's baseline forecast for real GDP growth is 6.5 per cent. The document holds key insights into India's macroeconomic landscape and government policies and also reforms that can be ushered in.
A day before the Union Budget, which will be unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday, February 1, 2023, the Economic Survey for 2023–24 was introduced in the Parliament on Tuesday, January 31, 2023. The Economic Survey, which is issued every year a day before the budget and analyses the performance of every area of the economy before making recommendations for the future, is a report card on the state of the economy.
Here are key highlights of the Economic Survey:
- India's economy to grow 6.5% in 2023-24, compared to 7% this fiscal and 8.7% in 2021-22. Gross domestic product (GDP) in nominal terms to be 11% in next fiscal.
- Real GDP growth to be in the range of 6-6.8% next fiscal depending on global economic, political developments.
- Current account deficit (CAD) may continue to widen as global commodity prices remain elevated, economic growth momentum stays strong. If CAD widens further, rupee may come under depreciation pressure.
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- India has sufficient forex reserves to finance CAD and intervene in forex market to manage rupee volatility.
- India to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world.
- India third largest economy in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, fifth largest in terms of exchange rate.
- India's recovery from the pandemic was relatively quick, growth next fiscal to be supported by solid domestic demand, pick up in capital investment.
- Credit disbursal, capital investment cycle, expansion of public digital platform and schemes like PLI, National Logitics Policy and PM Gati Shakti to drive economic growth.
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- India's economic resilience has helped it withstand the challenge of mitigating external imbalances caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict without losing growth momentum.
- Borrowing cost may remain 'higher for longer', entrenched inflation may prolong tightening cycle.
- On steel production: The nation is presently the world's second-largest producer of crude steel and a major player in the steel industry. The performance of the steel industry has been strong throughout the current fiscal year, with total production and consumption of finished steel at 88 MT and 86 MT, respectively.
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- Government's infra push: 89,151 projects costing Rs 141.4 lakh crore under different stages of implementation, 1009 projects worth Rs 5.5 lakh crore completed and NIP and Project Monitoring Group (PMG) portal linkage to fast-track approvals/ clearances for projects.
- Tourism sector is showing signs of revival, with foreign tourist arrivals in India in FY23 growing month-on-month with resumption of scheduled international flights and easing of Covid-19 regulations.
- Pharma push: Cumulative FDI in the pharma sector crossed the US$ 20 billion mark in September 2022. Further, FDI inflows have increased four-fold over five years until September 2022, to US$ 699 million. Growth in pharmaceutical output has slowed due to an unfavourable base effect and the waning of the pandemic
Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that the Union Budget will make an effort to realise the dreams and ambitions of ordinary folks prior to the Parliamentary Budget Session. In the midst of the world's economic difficulties, he said that the Budget would offer a glimmer of optimism.
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