A Centrum report forecasts a healthy Q1 FY27 for India's consumer durable sector, with 21% YoY sales growth. This is driven by an intense summer boosting demand for cooling products like ACs, supported by a favourable low base from last year.
The first quarter of financial year 2026-2027 is likely to be a seasonally healthy quarter for the consumer durable sector, according to a report by Centrum. Driven by an intense summer season and a higher prevalence of cooling products, the report expects a healthy Q1 led by favourable base and seasonality. "Q1FY27 is likely to be a seasonally healthy quarter for Consumer Durable sector with our coverage universe posting 21% YoY value growth in sales," the report stated.
Product Category Outlook
The product category outlook indicates distinct growth trajectories across different appliances. Room air conditioners are likely to see 30 per cent value growth, with 18-20 per cent of this expansion driven by volumes stemming from the heatwave, while price hikes contribute another 8-10 per cent. Washing machines and televisions are expected to grow in early double digits, supported by a 5-7 per cent price hike. Conversely, the refrigerator segment underperformed and faced visible growth constraints.
Summer Demand and Favourable Base Boost Growth
This surge is further supported by a low base from the previous year when widespread rains during the summer months restricted sector growth to just 1 per cent in the first quarter of financial year 2025-2026. "For Q1FY27, we expect our coverage universe to post 21% YoY sales growth at Rs461bn (on a favourable base of 1% growth)," the report mentioned.
The demand driven by summer heat picked up significantly from mid-April and remained robust through May before it started tapering off in June. Value growth is projected to remain exceptionally high in the cables and wires, alongside the air conditioners segment, with both categories seeing growth upwards of 30 per cent.
Financials and Operational Headwinds
On the financial performance front, the sector shows signs of overall recovery despite persistent operational challenges. The report stated, "EBITDA margin is likely to rise 10bps YoY to 9.4% (100bps YoY margin decline in base qtr). PAT growth is likely at 22% YoY to Rs29bn (11% de-growth in base qtr)." However, the sector continues to face pricing pressures on its margin front. High commodity costs for essential raw materials like copper, aluminum, PVC, and resins weigh on manufacturers. This is further compounded by the depreciation of the rupee, import delays, higher ocean freight, and rising petrol and diesel prices across the country.
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