US terror report warns of growing global threat from ISIS and Al-Qa’ida

The US terrorism report reveals a growing threat from ISIS and al-Qa'ida, despite setbacks. Their decentralized plotting, particularly in Africa, allows them to exploit vulnerabilities and launch attacks globally.

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The US report on terrorism reveals a concerning trend of escalating threats from ISIS and al-Qa'ida. Despite leadership losses and territorial setbacks, these groups have adapted and expanded their reach, posing a growing menace to US and allied interests worldwide.

The report highlights the decentralized plotting approach adopted by both groups, enabling them to exploit vulnerabilities and launch attacks from various regions. Africa has emerged as a critical hub for terrorist activity, with al-Qa'ida's and ISIS's most active affiliates operating on the continent.

Check the report on terrorism:

The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham’s (ISIS’s) and al-Qa’ida’s ability to threaten U.S.and allies’ interests probably is growing more dynamic and diffuse as both groups have implemented a decentralized plotting approach toward Western countries. With the fall of the Asad regime in Syria, ISIS and al-Qa’ida are trying to expand their freedom of movement andaccess to operational resources. 

Both groups continue to reference Israeli operations in Gaza to galvanize their global networks, recruit new members, generate revenue, and enable or inspire attacks against U.S., Israeli, Jewish, and European interests worldwide. The groups are also seeking to improve their weapons capabilities, including with commercial technologies such as UAVs and artificial intelligence.

Al-Qa’ida’s and ISIS’s most active, largest, and well-resourced affiliates are primarily in Africa.

These affiliates focus on plotting attacks locally, but some affiliates probably will also use their infrastructure on the continent as a springboard to advance plotting elsewhere this year.

ISIS

Throughout most of 2024, ISIS had to rely more on its global network, including affiliates in Africa and South Asia, amid leadership losses in the Middle East, but this trend may change as the group exploits the changing operating environment in a post-Asad Syria. ISIS will continue to use social media to enable its plotting and attempts to directly orchestrate attacks.

ISIS-Khorasan in Afghanistan and Pakistan has adapted to Taliban pressure to bolster its high-profile external attack capabilities, as demonstrated by the January 2024 bombings in Kerman, Iran, and the March 2024 attack in Moscow.

In Africa, ISIS-Somalia continues to serve as a key hub for ISIS operations globally, including external plotting in the West. In the Sahel and West Africa, ISIS branches are expanding their operational reach and strengthening their attack capabilities.

In the Middle East, ISIS’s freedom of movement is routinely contested and the group has suffered leadership losses in Iraq and Syria. In late 2024 and early 2025, U.S. military and Iraqi security forces killed 14 ISIS members in western Iraq, including ISIS’s second-in-command, as well as a senior member who led ISIS’s efforts to develop chemical weapons. However, ISIS may be able to offset these losses as the group reintegrates ISIS prisoners who have been freed as a result of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Syria.

Al-Qa’ida

Al-Qa’ida probably will focus on localized plotting against U.S. and partner interests over the next year, with the threat posed by the group especially growing in Africa. Al-Qa’ida never officially named a successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri after his death in 2022, and the group’s probable acting emir, Iran-based Sayf al-Adl, has not successfully reinvigorated the group’s external plotting efforts. At the same time, al-Qa’ida still seeks to enable and inspire attacks in the West and, similar to ISIS, is capitalizing on Middle East conflict—including in Gaza and after the fall of the Asad regime—to amplify its propaganda.

In Africa, al-Shabaab in Somalia almost certainly poses the most direct threat to U.S. forces of any terrorist group on the continent. Al-Shabaab also is seeking to acquire Huthi weapons for use in Somalia. Similar to ISIS, al-Qa’ida’s affiliates in West Africa are also exploiting instability to expand their reach and attack capabilities.

In the Middle East, Hurras al-Din—al-Qa’ida’s affiliate in Syria—continues to face leadership and resource constraints and the extent to which the group will exploit the situation in Syria to reverse these trends this year remains unclear. In Yemen, al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula probably is giving priority to local targets but maintains the intent and some capability to attack the U.S. Homeland, most recently enabling an attack that killed three U.S. service members at Naval Air Station Pensacola in 2019.