Ex-Diplomat Mahesh Sachdev states the US and Israel miscalculated the Iran war, believing it would be short. He warns that while red lines are now clear, President Trump's provocative victory rhetoric could incite further conflict.
Former Diplomat Mahesh Sachdev on Friday said that the US and Israel miscalculated Iran's situation and thought the war would finish quickly. Sachdev, in a conversation with ANI, said that as the red lines are clear now, further miscalculations can be avoided.
"Human history is full of wars being caused and expanded due to miscalculations. Most of the aggressions take place under the belief that they are to be short, swift, and decisive. We have seen this already on February 28 when the war started. Israel and the United States thought that they would be able to finish it quickly, but it hasn't happened. Now that all sides are well aware of each other's intentions and capabilities, the red lines are clear. Normally, this should prevent any miscalculation or overreach," he said.
Trump's Rhetoric 'Provocative'
Sachdev said further that US President Donald Trump's rhetoric that the US has won the war is provocative. "But then, Mr. Trump's rhetoric and his claim to have won the war and defeated the Iranian military decisively is provocative and may cause the other side to prove that they are still around and that they are willing and able to fight an asymmetric war," he said.
Sachdev further said that Trump is under mounting pressure to put an end to the war; but he wants to push the victory narrative over Iran. "On the other hand, the clock is ticking and President Trump is under pressure to create a situation, diplomatically or militarily, or both, under which he can declare victory and go home. All that put together creates a fairly pyrotechnical situation which may create a new skirmish or sharp military conflict, after which Mr. Trump would be able to say that he has won a decisive victory and withdraw. So we have to watch this space. In the meantime, as I said, red lines are quite clear. These red lines, particularly by Iran, have prevented the second round of Islamabad talks, which is by itself not a good sign," he said.
Israel-Lebanon Skirmishes Gain Focus
Sachdev further said that Israel-Lebanon skirmishes are of a bigger impact than Israel and Iran, as the former share a border, and after Syria was cut off, Hezbollah lost a base there. "Israel's war with Lebanon has received scant attention as compared to the bigger conflict involving Iran. Israel has a border of 79 kilometers with Lebanon, so attacks through that border have direct implications for Israel, while attacks from Iran can be targeted more easily due to the distance between the two countries of close to a thousand kilometers. Thirdly, Hezbollah has been an ally of Iran. It has been part of the axis of resistance. That relationship has frayed for a variety of reasons, including the cutting off of Syria, which used to be a conduit and a bridge between Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, providing support as well as a base for Hezbollah. That is no longer the case," he said.
"The political situation within Lebanon has also altered, and now the government has banned the military wing of Hezbollah earlier this year. However, it has not yet been able to get enough courage to do it physically because Hezbollah is more powerful than the government," he added.
White House Mediates Direct Talks
Sachdev further said that negotiations held in the White House at ambassadorial levels between Israel and Lebanon holds great significance. "Under the circumstances, Israel enhanced its war-making in Lebanon after a ceasefire with Iran was declared on April 8. In fact, Iran wanted that ceasefire to apply to Lebanon, but what Israel has done is exactly the opposite: it escalated the violence. Following this, from April 17, a ceasefire has been declared for 10 days by President Trump. It was preceded by the first direct contact between the two sides at the ambassadorial level of the State Department on the 14th of April. Yesterday, the second round of these talks, again at the ambassadorial level, was hosted not by the Secretary of State, but by President Trump himself, which adds to the significance of these negotiations," he said.
Awwad, however opined that Israel will take preventive measures for threats posed by Hezbollah. "He announced a three-week extension. Earlier, while announcing the ceasefire from the 17th, Mr. Trump prohibited Israel from attacking Lebanon. Israel has a very clear policy of not allowing threats; it wants to take preventive measures, and military action is often used to force such developments. So, Israel would continue, in my understanding, targeting Hezbollah and its fighters, and President Trump would have to contend with that," he said.
Awwad said that during the talks that will be held between Lebanon and Israel's Prime Ministers, Trump will ask them to sign long-term peace deals. "What is important is raising the level of ambassadorialism. With President Trump announcing an extension of the ceasefire and saying that within three weeks the President of Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Israel will be in Washington to presumably have a tripartite summit hosted by him, it's reasonable to suspect that the idea would be to have a long-term peace document being signed for Lebanon to join the Abraham Accords," he said.
🚨 "The Meeting went very well! The United States is going to work with Lebanon in order to help it protect itself from Hezbollah. The Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by THREE WEEKS." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/OUyewZJKmT — The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 23, 2026
Earlier in the day, Trump announced, "I found that out today, and I've sort of heard about that; they actually like each other, Lebanon and Israel. We had a great meeting with very high officials of Lebanon and very high officials of Israel. We think that the President of Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Israel over the next couple of weeks will be coming here. They've agreed to an additional three weeks of no firing, a ceasefire, no more firing." (ANI)
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)