TikTok Ban Could Boost Meta’s Revenue by Over 5% By Mid-2025, Says Analyst: Retail Optimistic On Facebook Parent

TikTok is bracing for the shutdown of its app in the U.S. by the Jan. 19 deadline unless the Supreme Court rules against the ban, according to media reports. Given the ByteDance-owned short-video app’s popularity in the U.S., it is expected that most mainstream U.S. social media companies stand to gain from the development.

Against this backdrop, tech analyst and venture capitalist Gene Munster said the Supreme Court could announce its verdict shortly. Following a hearing last Friday, justices of the apex court appeared to be leaning toward ruling in favor of a federal ban.

Munster, who is Managing Partner at tech venture capital firm Deepwater Management, said a ban could boost bigger rival Meta Platform, Inc.’s (META) revenue by 5%, starting by mid-year. 

Working out the math, Munster said a TikTok ban would send users flocking to Meta-owned photo-sharing app Instagram’s Reels to satiate their TikTok addiction. A Stocktwits poll of retail investors on the platform showed that 50% of the respondents saw Instagram as the biggest beneficiary of a TikTok ban.

The tech entrepreneur noted that compared to TikTok’s 170 million users, who spend an average of 70 minutes a day on the app, Instagram has 180 million users who spend an average of 40 minutes a day on the app. 

The time spent on TikTok is 65% higher than that on Instagram, he said, adding that even if Meta picks up half of the Chinese app’s U.S. revenue, it could add about 5% to the Mark Zuckerberg-run company’s topline.

Munster said, “I believe Meta would end up gaining more than half of TikTok’s US revenue because Reels is the best alternative to TikTok and users will need to quickly fill their TikTok void.”

However, he sees serious repercussions. According to the analyst, a TikTok ban will increase the probability of a trade war between China and the U.S., as the Chinese leadership will likely view the ban as a “punch in the gut.”

META sentiment and message volume January 15, 2025, pas of 1:28 pm ET | Source: Stocktwits

Amid the uncertainty, sentiment toward Meta stock stayed ‘bullish’ (61/100) and retail chatter rose to ‘high’ levels. 

A retail watcher of the stock called for a new all-time high, pointing to activity in the options market.

But some chose to remain cautious. They do not think President-elect Donald Trump will allow a TikTok ban and view the recent job cuts as a forewarning of something serious.

At last check, Meta stock climbed 4.36% to $620.17.

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