According to a Reuters report, economists at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model said the potential refund exposure stems from tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
- The nation’s highest court could decide as soon as Friday whether the emergency-based levies are lawful.
- The group built its projection using detailed import data from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering about 11,000 product classifications across more than 200 countries.
- By applying current duty rates and forecasting methods, the model estimates roughly $500 million in revenue per day under the emergency statute.
More than $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could reportedly be on the line if the Supreme Court invalidates President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping import duties.
According to a Reuters report, economists at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model said the potential refund exposure stems from tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
High-Stakes Supreme Court Decision
The nation’s highest court could decide as soon as Friday whether the emergency-based levies are lawful. If the ruling goes against the administration, companies that paid the duties over the past year would likely petition U.S. Customs and Border Protection for reimbursements.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly highlighted tariff income as a fiscal boost.
“We have taken in, and will soon be receiving, more than 600 Billion Dollars in Tariffs, but the Fake News Media refuses to talk about it because they hate and disrespect our Country, and want to interfere with the upcoming Tariff decision,” President Trump said in a post on Truth Social in January.
However, Penn-Wharton estimates indicate that a sizable portion tied to the emergency authority could be reversed, according to the report.
How Was The Estimate Calculated?
According to the report, senior economist Lysle Bolle said the group built its projection using detailed import data from the U.S. Census Bureau, covering about 11,000 product classifications across more than 200 countries.
By applying current duty rates and forecasting methods, the model estimates roughly $500 million in revenue per day under the emergency statute. As of Thursday, total collections under that authority approached $179 billion.
President Trump earlier cautioned that if the court rules against the tariffs, it could make the United States “financially defenseless.”
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