Endpoint Area listed Nov. 30 as the expected catalyst timing for Sellas’ Phase 3 GPS trial.
- The clinical-trials prediction market priced “YES” contracts on a positive GPS AML result at $0.83, implying an 83% probability of success.
- GPS, or galinpepimut-S, is being tested as AML maintenance therapy against the best available treatment.
- Sellas’ Regal trial has reached 78 of 80 events needed for final analysis, while SLS009 remains another AML catalyst later this year.
Shares of Sellas Life Sciences (SLS) came under pressure on Wednesday despite Endpoint Area, a clinical-trials prediction market, flashing 83% odds of a positive GPS result in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and pointing to Nov. 30 as the expected catalyst.
SLS stock slid 10% on Monday to end at $13.27, logging its worst session in over a month. However, shares are poised to end the week in the green.
Prediction Market Flashes Bullish Odds For GPS
Endpoint Area’s market is focused on Sellas’ GPS (galinpepimut-S) as maintenance therapy for patients with AML in remission. The market asks whether GPS will show a positive overall survival result versus best available therapy in the Phase 3 trial. Endpoint Area priced “YES” at $0.83 and “NO” at $0.17, implying an 83% probability of success.
The platform also listed Nov. 30 as the expected catalyst date. Retail sentiment around SLS remains strong despite the stock’s sharp drop.
That prediction-market confidence is also showing up in retail sentiment, with Stocktwits traders largely holding firm through the selloff. In a recent Stocktwits poll asking users what they were doing with SLS stock, 47% said they were holding and 35% said they were buying or adding to positions. Only 9% said they were selling or trimming.
A separate Stocktwits poll asking traders for their 12-month price target showed similarly aggressive expectations. About 72% of respondents expected SLS to reach $25 or higher, while 11% expected the stock to trade between $20 and $24.99. Another 7% expected a range of $15 to $19.99, and 10% forecast the stock below $15.
Regal Trial Drives SLS Focus
The main catalyst is Sellas’ Phase 3 Regal trial of GPS in AML, which has reached 78 of the 80 events needed for final analysis. The company has said that the trial would be successful if GPS extends the median overall survival to 12.6 months, versus 8 months with standard treatment.
CEO Angelos Stergiou has called the delay in reaching the 80th event “a profoundly positive signal,” saying it suggests patients are living longer than projected and that GPS could become “the true standard of care in AML maintenance.”
Investors are also watching Sellas’ cash position and corporate filings. The company ended Q1 with $107.1 million in cash and raised another $28.7 million through warrant exercises. Shareholders also approved a 20 million-share increase to its equity incentive plan, while Sellas updated change-of-control and severance arrangements for top executives.
Beyond Regal, investors are also watching SLS009, Sellas’ second AML candidate, with topline frontline AML data expected later this year.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SLS?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SLS has been ‘extremely bullish’ over the past week, amid a 101% increase in message volume.
One user said, “$SLS Wouldn’t this be the cat’s Meow! Next Monday, Serg. states 80th event. But a trading halt has been put in place. 15 minutes later, PR for acquisition from one of the Big Three Pharmaceutical Companies. (Eli Lilly, J&$, AbbVie) For $14B. But has not confirmed yet, because confirmation is on which company can produce the most secure offer.”
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Another user said, “$SLS If there is no sterg post tomorrow morning, I believe that should trigger a mass belief that PR will come monday morning about the holiday. Theres simply no other way.”
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SLS stock has surged 538% over the past year.
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