A survey of 10,481 respondents predicts BJP will win a full majority in Karnataka with 136-159 seats if elections were held today. Congress faces anti-incumbency, winning 62-82 seats, while JD(S) drops to 3-6 seats in a bipolar contest.

Bengaluru: If Karnataka were to hold Assembly elections today, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would emerge victorious with a full majority for the first time, according to a recent survey conducted by Hyderabad-based People’s Pulse and Codemo Technologies.

The month-long survey, which covered 10,481 respondents, projects that the BJP would secure between 136 and 159 seats in the 224-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the halfway mark of 113. The Congress is expected to win between 62 and 82 seats, while the JD(S) could see a dramatic decline, winning only 3 to 6 seats.

Bipolar contest, JD(S) fades

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The survey reveals a clear bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress, pushing JD(S) to the margins. JD(S), which secured an 18.3% vote share in the 2023 elections, is now predicted to drop to just 5%. Meanwhile, the Congress vote share is expected to shrink from 42.88% in 2023 to 40.3%, reflecting growing anti-incumbency against the ruling party.

Although the BJP has been a major player in Karnataka politics for the past two decades, emerging as the single largest party in 2004, 2008, and 2018. It has never previously won a clear majority on its own.

Siddaramaiah remains most preferred CM face 

Despite the survey favouring the BJP in the seat tally, current Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most popular choice for the top post. About 29.2% of respondents preferred him as chief minister, followed by Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar at 10.7%.

In contrast, none of the BJP’s potential CM candidates managed to cross the double-digit mark. B.S. Yediyurappa received 5.5% support, B.Y. Vijayendra 5.2%, and Basavaraj Bommai 3.6%. Interestingly, 16.9% of respondents supported "any BJP candidate", indicating wider acceptance of the party rather than a particular face.

Congress governance gets mixed reviews 

The survey found that 48.4% of respondents rated the Congress government’s performance as "very good" or "good", while 51.6% found it to be average or poor. This mixed perception reflects the challenges facing the Congress despite its various welfare schemes.

Gruha Lakshmi scheme wins most approval 

Among the Congress government's five flagship guarantees, the Gruha Lakshmi scheme emerged as the most popular. About 45.4% of respondents favoured the scheme, which provides ₹2,000 per month to the woman head of a household. Other schemes followed in this order: Shakti (19%), Anna Bhagya (17%), Gruha Jyothi (13.5%), and Yuva Nidhi (2%). Around 3% said they were unaware of these schemes.

Divided opinions on caste census 

The Social and Educational Survey (caste census) also featured in the survey. About 42.3% of respondents said they either fully (26.3%) or partially (16%) trusted the caste census findings. Meanwhile, 35% said they didn’t trust it, and 22.7% admitted they were unaware of the exercise.

Support for the caste census also appeared to align with party preference: 39.6% of Congress supporters trusted the report fully, compared to just 18.5% among BJP supporters.