The study envisioned a worst-case escalation path that began with conventional warfare and spiralled into an all-out nuclear exchange.
Tensions between India and Pakistan have reached a dangerous high following last month's deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 people. With both nations ramping up military readiness and Pakistan's leadership issuing veiled nuclear threats, a 2019 academic study predicting such a scenario is resurfacing with chilling relevance.
Published by Routledge, the research paper had forecast a nuclear conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours in the year 2025, ignited by a high-casualty terror attack—eerily similar to the recent assault in Pahalgam. The study envisioned a worst-case escalation path that began with conventional warfare and spiralled into an all-out nuclear exchange.
How the war would begin
The researchers theorised that a major terrorist strike—originally modelled as an attack on the Indian Parliament—would prompt India to mobilise its military along the Line of Control (LoC). Pakistan, in turn, would respond with its own deployment. Border skirmishes and casualties on both sides would serve as the catalyst for a full-blown conflict.
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"Both sides mobilize and deploy their troops... Skirmishes break out, and there are deaths on both sides," the paper noted, referencing the post-Parliament attack standoff in 2002 as precedent.
Predicted use of nuclear weapons
In the study's hypothetical timeline, once Indian forces begin advancing into Pakistani territory, Pakistan's military leadership resorts to using tactical nuclear weapons out of fear of conventional defeat:
Day 1: Pakistan deploys 10 tactical nukes (5-kiloton yield) on its own soil targeting Indian tank formations.
Day 2: Pakistan fires 15 more. India retaliates with 20 strategic nuclear airbursts targeting Pakistani military facilities and nuclear assets.
These detonations generate massive smoke plumes and firestorms reminiscent of Hiroshima and historic urban disasters.
Unstoppable escalation and catastrophic fallout
Instead of de-escalation, India’s nuclear response triggers a third and even more devastating phase:
Pakistan launches 30 nuclear airbursts over Indian military bases and 15 additional tactical strikes.
India answers with strikes on 10 Pakistani military sites in urban areas.
The situation spirals out of control. According to the study, Pakistan eventually fires its entire stockpile of 120 nuclear weapons at Indian cities. India responds with 70 nuclear airbursts, while reserving 100 warheads as a deterrent against China—long after nuclear deterrence with Pakistan has failed.
Global consequences
The study estimates 50 to 125 million immediate deaths depending on weapon yield. Most major cities in both countries would be wiped out. Infrastructure systems would collapse. Worse still, the environmental fallout from massive fires could alter global climate patterns, potentially triggering worldwide famines affecting billions.
