Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Exit Polls: Pollsters predict 23 seats for NDA, 3-5 seats for Congress in Karnataka

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Karnataka's exit polls suggest a strong performance by the BJP, predicted to win 20-25 seats. Congress is expected to secure 3-5 seats, with JD(S) possibly getting 2-3. Nationwide, attention shifts to whether BJP can replicate its past success as results will be announced on June 4.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 exit polls Karnataka voter turnout latest news surveys trend results and more

Vinaykumar Patil

First Published Jun 1, 2024, 6:54 PM IST | Last Updated Jun 1, 2024, 9:20 PM IST

The election results for Lok Sabha 2024 are set to be announced on June 4, all eyes are on the exit polls, which will provide early predictions. Politicians and citizens alike are eager to see if Karnataka will continue its trend of differing support in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections or if the BJP will once again emerge victorious.

The exit polls by India Today said BJP will get 20-22 seats, Congress will get 3-5 seats and JDS will get 2-3 seats. Exit polls by Axis My India predicted NDA will get 23-25 seats and the INDI Alliance is likely to win 3-5 seats in Karnataka. News24-Today’s Chanakya projects a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA Alliance in Karnataka, predicting they will win 42 seats, while the INC-led INDIA Alliance is expected to secure 4 seats.

According to Republic-PMARQ, the NDA is likely to secure 21-22 seats, with the INDIA Alliance projected to win 6-7 seats. Axis My India-India Today predicts the NDA will win 23-25 seats, the INDIA Alliance 3-5 seats, with no seats going to other parties.

India TV-CNX forecasts the NDA to win between 19-25 seats and the INDIA Alliance to secure 4-8 seats. News18 Exit Poll expects the NDA to secure 23-26 seats, and the INDIA Alliance to win 3-7 seats, with no seats for other parties. NDTV-Jan Ki Baat projects the NDA to win 21-23 seats and the Congress to secure 7-5 seats. ABP-CVoter anticipates the BJP will win 23-25 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 3-5 seats.

Karnataka, known for its distinct voting pattern, traditionally favours different parties in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. This trend might change this time as voters have cast their ballots in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, held in two phases on April 26 and May 7, across 28 constituencies. With the final phase of the national elections concluding on June 1, attention now shifts to the exit polls.

Exit polls: What can you expect?

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters leave polling stations, asking whom they voted for. These polls differ from opinion polls, which gauge voter intentions before elections. As the Election Commission of India (ECI) had restricted the publication of exit poll results until 6 pm on June 1, anticipation builds to see whether the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the Congress-led INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc will form the next government.

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Karnataka’s voting phases

The first round of voting in Karnataka took place on April 26, involving 247 candidates across 14 constituencies. The second phase on May 7 saw 227 candidates vying for the remaining 14 seats. Chikkaballapur had the highest number of candidates in the first phase, while Davangere led in the second. The voter turnout was significant, with the first phase recording a 69.56% turnout and the second phase achieving 71.84%.

Voter turnout trends

The nationwide Lok Sabha elections saw varying turnout rates across phases: 66.14% in the first phase, 66.71% in the second, 65.68% in the third, 69.16% in the fourth, 62.2% in the fifth, and 61.98% in the sixth. The turnout for the final seventh phase is yet to be disclosed.

2014 Lok Sabha elections: Prediction vs Results

In the 2014 elections, exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA would secure 283 seats, while the Congress-led UPA was expected to win 105 seats. However, the actual results surpassed these predictions, with the NDA winning 336 seats, and the BJP alone securing 282 seats. The UPA managed only 60 seats, with Congress getting 44.

2019 Lok Sabha elections: Prediction vs Results

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls forecasted that the NDA would win 306 seats, while the UPA was predicted to get 120 seats. The final results again exceeded expectations for the NDA, which secured 353 seats, with the BJP winning 303. The UPA won 93 seats, with Congress obtaining 52.

Battle on for 2024 Lok Sabha elections

As the 2024 elections draw to a close, the focus is on whether the BJP can replicate its 2019 success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, contesting from Varanasi for the third time, faces Ajay Rai from Congress, who finished third in previous elections.

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