The IMD has forecast the 2026 southwest monsoon to be below normal at 92% of the Long Period Average, with a higher probability of 'below normal' or 'deficient' rainfall due to the potential development of El Nino conditions.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday projected that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) over the country is most likely to be below normal, estimated at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of +-5 per cent.
According to IMD, the LPA of seasonal rainfall for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm. The forecast indicates a higher probability of rainfall falling in the "below normal" (90-95 per cent of LPA) and "deficient" (less than 90 per cent) categories.
Key Climatic Influencers
The department stated that while weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics. However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the possible development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.
IMD further noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail at present, with climate models indicating a likely shift towards positive IOD conditions in the latter part of the monsoon season.
Impact of Snow Cover
On snow cover, IMD said that the Northern Hemisphere experienced slightly below-normal snow cover between January and March 2026. It added that reduced snow cover generally has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall over India.
Spatial Distribution Forecast
The spatial distribution forecast suggests below-normal rainfall over many parts of the country, except some regions in Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.
Next Forecast Update
IMD stated that it will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2026 as part of its two-stage long-range forecasting strategy. (ANI)
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