Exit polls project BJP-led NDA winning Assam and West Bengal, Congress-led UDF in Kerala, and NR Congress in Puducherry. In Tamil Nadu, surveys predict a DMK-led win, but one poll gives Vijay's TVK a blockbuster debut performance.
Exit polls on Wednesday projected that the BJP-led NDA was poised to win Assam and the Congress-led UDF Keralam with the most surveys also stating that the BJP is on its way to form its first government in West Bengal.
The surveys predicted that the DMK-led alliance would again return to power in Tamil Nadu, but Axis My India projected that actor-turned politician Vijay's TVK is set for a blockbuster performance in the southern state and is poised to get as much vote share as DMK in its debut election. In Puducherry, the exit polls projected the NR Congress-led alliance returning to power.
West Bengal Exit Polls
Exit poll numbers projected an interesting tussle in West Bengal, with the BJP ahead in most of the projections. Chanakya Strategies projected the BJP winning 150-160 seats in 294 West Bengal assembly and getting a majority of its own. It said that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) would win 30-40 seats and others six to 10 seats.
Matrize predicted BJP getting 146-161 seats in West Bengal, TMC 125-140 seats and others 6-10 seats.
JVC projected that BJP would get 138-159 seats, the Trinamool Congress 131-152 seats, Congress 0-2 seats, Left parties 0-1 seat and others 0-1 seat.
P-Marq exit poll projected 150-175 seats for BJP, 118-138 for Trinamool Congress and 2-6 for others.
People Pulse projected 95-100 seats for BJP, 177-187 seats for Trinamool Congress, 1-3 seats for Congress and 0-1 seat for Left parties.
Poll Diary exit poll projected 142-147 seats for BJP, 99-127 for Trinamool Congress, 3-5 for Congress, 2-3 for Left parties and 0-1 for others.
Tamil Nadu Exit Polls
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India exit poll projected that Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) would get 98-120 seats in its debut election, DMK-led alliance 92-100 seats and the five-party alliance led by BJP getting 22-32 seats.
According to Axis My India, Vijay is ahead of Chief Minister MK Stalin in terms of choice for the next Chief Minister. While Stalin was supported by 35 per cent of those polled, Vijay got the support of 37 per cent.
Several other exit polls predicted that the alliance led by the ruling DMK will return to power in the state People Pulse projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance and AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP, getting 65-80 seats. It projected Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) getting two to six seats. Tamil Nadu has 234 assembly seats.
According to exit poll projections by Matrize, DMK and allies will get 122-132 seats and AIADMK and allies 80-100 seats. It said TVK would get 0-6 assembly seats.
The exit poll by P-MARQ projected 125-145 seats for DMK-led alliance, 60-70 seats for AIADMK-led alliance and one to six seats for TVK.
People Insight projected 120-140 seats for DMK-led alliance, 60-70 for AIADMK-led alliance and 30-40 seats for TVK.
DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) in Tamil Nadu also includes the Congress.
Vijay's 'Victory is Certain' Message
Vijay, who is seen to have huge popularity among youth, had last week described the Tamil Nadu Assembly polling voter turnout as a "pinnacle historical event" in the history of the state's electoral politics and said that the "victory is certain".
"Greetings to all who reside in my heart," he began his post on X. "Politics is something only for some celestial warriors. Only for those with excessive experience. Only for those who enjoy positions. The illusory calculations of those who confined and controlled politics within such specific boundaries have been shattered and crushed by ordinary people," he said.
"No one would have failed to be amazed seeing families, family by family, with little children, coming to vote, just like the crowds seen at temples anywhere for polling stations. And is that all? Can we not clasp our hands in salute to those democrats who came, spending great sums, from other states and even from foreign countries just to vote?"
The meaning of calling it an election festival, a democratic festival, was truly felt only yesterday. This April 23, 2026. Yet, this is only a beginning," he added.
Vijay's entry had turned the Tamil Nadu polls triangular. The politics in the state has traditionally been dominated by alliances led by DMK and AIADMK.
Kerala Exit Polls
In Keralam, exit polls projected that the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is poised to unseat ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), bringing its 10-year rule in the state to an end.
Axis My India projected a comfortable majority for UDF and said it is poised to win 78 to 90 seats in the 140-member assembly. It said the Left Democratic Front would win 49 to 62 seats and the BJP-led NDA zero to three seats.
According to People's Pulse, the ruling LDF is poised to win 55 to 60 seats, UDF 75 to 85 seats and NDA 0-3 seats.
JVC projected that UDF would win with 72 to 84 seats, LDF 52-60 seats and BJP-led NDA three to eight seats.
Matrize predicted 70-75 seats for UDF, 52-61 seats for LDF and 3-7 for BJP-led NDA.
The LDF had won the 2021 polls and broken the trend of the state having a change of government every five years. The last assembly polls were a setback for UDF and exit poll predictions will be music to the ears of the leaders of the Congress-led alliance.
The results of Keralam elections will be out on May 4, along with the outcome of elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry. The exit poll projections were released after the second phase of polling in West Bengal. Assam, Kerala and Puducherry went to the polls on April 9 and Tamil Nadu on April 23. West Bengal went to the polls in two phases on April 23 and April 29. States recorded a very high voter turnout.
Assam Exit Polls
In Assam, exit polls predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised to retain power for a third successive term.
Axis My India projected that the BJP-led NDA would secure 88-100 seats and Congress-led alliance 24 to 36 seats. The state has 126 assembly seats.
JVC predicted 88-101 seats for the NDA and 23-33 seats for the Congress-led alliance. It gave 0-2 seats in AIUDF and three to others.
Matrize projected 85-95 seats for the BJP-led alliance, 25-32 for the Congress-led alliance and 6-12 seats for others.
P-Marq projected 82-94 seats for the BJP-led alliance, 30-40 for the Congress-led alliance and 1-5 for others.
The Congress stitched a six-party alliance to take on the ruling BJP-led NDA in Assam.
Puducherry Exit Polls
In Puducherry, pollsters projected victory for the ruling All India NR Congress-led (AINRC) alliance, which also includes the BJP.
The exit poll by People Pulse projected 16-19 seats for NDA in the 30-member assembly. It said Congress and allies will win 10 to 12 seats.
Axis My India also predicted that the NDA would win the Puducherry Assembly polls and get 16-20 seats. It projected Congress and allies getting six to eight seats, TVK two to four seats and others one to three seats.
(ANI)
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