Amid states full of defeated rivals, Modi stands invincible

The BJP is all set to win 300 seats in the crucial state polls of Uttar Pradesh of 2017. It was a sweep that exit polls hinted at, but perhaps no one imagined the scale. It is a repeat of the 2014 results, right down to the Modi wave and unshakeable combination of Modi plus Shah. 

The BJP, which had just 47 seats in the outgoing Assembly, garnered 40 per cent vote share, in the most riveting contest seen as a game changer and a virtual referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity and demonetization. 

"It is a Modi wave. The wave which started with 2014 Lok Sabha elections is continuing in 2017 and the momentum will go beyond the 2019 general elections," BJP Uttar Pradesh chief Keshav Prasad Maurya said. 

PM Modi rules supreme now. He campaigned hard for the elections, and much like Bihar has put his personal worth on the line here, asking voters to pick BJP candidates as a proxy for him. Unsaid in all of this is the understanding that should they do so, then he will control those candidates, and the Chief Minister, to such a level that the many promised made, will be fulfilled. 

And the victory changes on ground realities as well. In just Uttar Pradesh, the idea of 'Muslim block' has been shattered, proving the reality voting by block or religion or caste will be meaningless in the face of a unified choice by the majority. 

Further, polarisation is both real and a sustained factor in election mathematics. PM Modi's claim of having equality between 'graveyards' and 'crematoriums' is a meaningless debate. However a series of such discussions, each one of which further polarised communities, seemed to have found some resonance with the people.

Development was also not far behind, though it was slightly behind indeed. There were dark rumours that various people would 'punish' the PM for demonetization. But that proved to be wholly false. Apparently, those in UP did not feel demonetization was a punishable offence. And the BJP's promises to revamp Uttar Pradesh also found a strong following. 

Whether or not the BJP can change Uttar Pradesh, when they seem to struggle to fix even just Varanasi, is left to be seen. What is a certainty now is that UP no longer has faith that the Yadavs of the Samajwadi Party will do it. 

And Mayawati's brand of caste-based politics has been wholly rejected. She will be out of power for ten years by the end of this now, and just five years alone have been deeply damaging to her. 

The UP victory will effect the entire country as well. Much of the BJP's grand plans to transform the nation via law, both good and bad, have been stuck in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP lacks the numbers.

Uttar Pradesh sends 31 MPs to the Rajya Sabha of which the BJP will get about 20. Though the Sabha's seats do not change in the same sequence as the Lok Sabha or State Polls, so that advantage may not be apparent soon, or even before 2019. But even then, it will make things easier, not harder, for the BJP to push across legislation they like. 

But we must come back to PM Modi, who remains the biggest winner of these elections, no matter how you look at it. Amit Shah has won once again, a sea of rivals have been defeated once again, and the Congress has been hammered once again. But PM Modi was, and remains, invincible. 

is 2019 already in the bag for the BJP? 

• UP Polls
• PM Modi