Viewpoint: Remember Atal's 'India Shining' defeat in 2004?
Social media played a very important role in 2014 and was responsible for destroying the image of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. A repeat is now seen in the 2024 election against PM Modi and the BJP. This is a silent movement, which may spring a surprise result again in 2024 as it did in 2004, says Sanjay Bapna
FollowThe election to the Lower House of the Indian Parliament, known as the Lok Sabha, is becoming very interesting, dividing the society vertically. The majority of the voters are silent barring small sections of hardcore voters of both sides who are extremely vocal. There seem to be some parallels and some contradictions between the 2004 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections with 2024.
In the 2004 elections, the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the tallest and undisputed leader of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) with no other leader of his stature in India. The BJP was running the “India Shining” campaign which left negligible space in media for the opposition. These points draw a parallel with the 2024 elections as there does not seem to be any challenge to PM Modi and the opposition is not getting any space in mainstream media, where BJP is running its “Modi ki Guarantee” campaign. The PM face of BJP in 2004 was equally in command as that in 2024, with both being sitting Prime Ministers in power as the Nation goes into election. Modi is an undisputed leader of the establishment in 2024 as was Vajpayee in 2004.
Between the 2004 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections there are some major contradictions as well. In 2004, there were no serious allegations of corruption against Vajpayee or his government, whereas, there are numerous allegations of corruption directly raised by the opposition against Prime Minister Modi and his government with several scams coming to light. Another major difference is the handling of most institutions in the country. Vajpayee was seen as a democratic leader who respected the independence of all institutions, whereas, under the current regime there are shades of a dictatorial attitude, enacting controversial laws, freezing the accounts of the main opposition party and squeezing them for resources during elections, misuse of institutions to settle scores with opposition and breaking them.
The state of opposition parties is most notable. A majority of senior Indian National Congress (INC) leaders had left the Party across India on the leadership issue. INC was fighting under the stewardship of Sonia Gandhi, the then-president of Congress. Opposition was totally at loggerheads with the Congress broken into multiple factions. There is a difference in opposition unity in 2024 as I.N.D.I.A. In contrast to 2004, the opposition is more or less united with Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi spearheading the campaign across India along with several leaders of other opposition parties.
Another difference between the 2004 and 2024 elections is with regard to mass communication and awareness about the issues which has drastically changed with the emergence of a parallel medium in the form of social and electronic media. With a very high rate of literacy amongst people under the age of 50 across India and penetration of the internet along the length and breadth of the country, social and electronic media is able to strike very deep. With a significant percentage of voters or their family members and friends owning smartphones, awareness of issues being raised both by the establishment and the opposition is very high. Although mainstream media appears to be in total control of the Government currently, However, despite an all-out effort by the government, it is unable to control social and electronic media, and every netizen is able to voice his or her opinion.
To the surprise of the mainstream media, the BJP lost the 2004 election and UPA was formed post-election, which chose Sonia Gandhi as its leader, who in turn proposed Dr Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister who was accepted by the UPA Parliamentary party. Similarly, in the 2014 elections, the opposition did not have a well-established and universally accepted face for PM across the country. Narendra Modi was announced and projected as PM candidate after much reluctance. He was well-established in Gujarat and had limited appeal in parts of the Hindi belt. He did not command a national appeal then. But prior to 2014, Anna Hazare started a campaign against corruption based on some findings of CAG and other agencies, demanding the creation of Lokpal.
Corruption is a universal issue that mobilises the masses, especially the youth. Anna Hazare carried the tag of being a Gandhian. Arvind Kejriwal also joined in the movement. Kejriwal had developed an image of being an upright RTI activist who was highly educated and was a serving bureaucrat. Both combined were a great attraction for the youth and India saw a movement against corruption across the length and breadth, both in rural areas as well as urban. An anti-establishment mood set in. It was not in favour of the BJP, as popularly believed. So, wherever a strong third alternative to Congress and BJP existed, people opted for the non-Congress non-BJP option and where the fight was one-to-one between Congress and BJP, BJP won as Congress was in establishment and the movement was anti-establishment.
Another parallel between the 2024 election and the 2004 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections is that there was no singular opposition face in any of them. Despite the absence of a single established credible leader, India saw power changing hands in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. What made the difference? It is the first and second-time voter of every election who is the torch bearer of change. This voter, who was not influenced by the “India Shining” campaign or rather could not see India shining anywhere, voted against the establishment in 2004. Similarly, in 2014, young voters came out against corruption across the country and effected change. So again in 2024, it is becoming very evident that this voter, who is yet to develop a mature political ideology is questioning the establishment on its past deeds, previous promises, policies and its implementation over five years, women's security, matters of internal security, the border dispute with China, large scale corruption, misuse of democratic institutions, etc. on various social media platforms and also through their reactions on posts of media houses on social media.
Observing the comments section under any political post by any neutral forum or media platform, the reactions against the incumbent dispensation and Prime Minister Modi in particular are increasing exponentially by the day.
Social media played a very important role in 2014 and was responsible for destroying the image of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. A repeat is now seen in the 2024 election against PM Modi and the BJP. This is a silent movement, which may spring a surprise result again in 2024 as it did in 2004.
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The author is a former secretary of the All India Congress Committee. Views expressed are personal.
