Is Arsenal the Clear Favourite to Win the Premier League? Opta Predicts Chance of Glory

Arsenal’s 4-1 derby win over Tottenham boosts their Premier League title chances to 76%. Opta predicts Arteta’s men could finish with 81 points, while rivals like Man City, Chelsea, and Liverpool lag behind, and Manchester United risk missing Europe.

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Arsenal's EPL Title Charge

Arsenal’s emphatic 4-1 victory over north London rivals Tottenham on Sunday has not only thrilled the Emirates faithful but also sent shockwaves across the Premier League. According to Opta’s statistical models, Mikel Arteta’s side now enjoy a 76.14 per cent chance of lifting the title, making them overwhelming favourites to end a nearly two-decade wait for top-flight glory.

Sunday’s derby triumph was more than just a win—it was a statement. The Gunners extended their lead at the top of the table to six points and showcased a level of consistency and dominance that has been missing in recent seasons.

Following this weekend's Premier League action, Arsenal now win the league in 76.1% of the current Opta supercomputer season simulations.

For more projections, go here: https://t.co/7aqZAb0Jdqpic.twitter.com/EGFF3THpor

— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 24, 2025

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Arsenal’s Numbers Behind the Dream

Opta’s predictive metrics suggest that if Arsenal maintain their current trajectory, they could end the season with 81.20 points. The data also indicates that Arsenal are five times more likely to win the Premier League than their nearest challengers.

Manchester City, long the benchmark for sustained excellence, are predicted to finish second with 71.25 points and just a 14.11 per cent chance of winning the league. Chelsea, despite a recent run of three consecutive league wins without conceding, are forecasted to claim 64.89 points, leaving them with a 3.46 per cent probability of securing the title.

The defending champions, Liverpool, are expected to finish fourth with 64.07 points, reflecting a poor run of just one win in their last seven league games. While this would not be catastrophic by historical standards, it is a far cry from the high expectations of Reds supporters.

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European Qualification: The Battle Below the Top Four

The race for Champions League qualification looks set to be fiercely competitive. Surprisingly, Manchester United, despite an unbeaten streak of five matches, may struggle to secure a top-four spot. Opta predicts the Red Devils could finish 8th with 56.32 points, potentially missing out on European football for a second consecutive season—a scenario that would be catastrophic for the club.

Instead, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Brighton are expected to capitalize on the opportunity to finish in the top seven. Villa, currently fourth, could seal a Champions League berth with 62.19 points, while Crystal Palace might enjoy back-to-back European qualification with 61.21 points. Brighton rounds out the top seven at 57.64 points, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the mid-table race.

Newcastle United and Bournemouth are projected to round off the top half, finishing with 56 and 54.9 points respectively. Meanwhile, Tottenham, despite the league’s spotlight on north London, are predicted to struggle, finishing in 11th place with 54.08 points—another disappointing campaign for Thomas Frank’s side.

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The Mid-Table Shuffle

The Premier League’s middle tier appears tightly packed this season. Brentford, Everton, Sunderland, Fulham, Nottingham Forest, and West Ham are all expected to survive relegation. Sunderland, back in the top flight, are forecasted to gather 45.16 points, comfortably above the drop zone. Fulham and Nottingham Forest are projected at 45.04 and 43.06 points, respectively.

West Ham, however, are predicted to narrowly avoid relegation, ending the season with just 38.63 points, a stark warning of the challenges that lie ahead for David Moyes’ side. Everton sits mid-table at 48.03 points, showing a steady but unspectacular campaign under Moyes’ management.

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The Relegation Zone

At the bottom of the table, Leeds United, Burnley, and Wolves face serious threats. Leeds are forecasted to finish 18th with 34.84 points, while Burnley could end up 19th with 34.52 points. Wolves, who hoped for a revival under Rob Edwards, are predicted to struggle severely, gathering only 24.81 points and facing a 94.91 per cent chance of relegation. For a club of their stature, dropping to the Championship would be a humiliating blow.

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What This Season Could Mean

If these predictions hold true, the 2025 Premier League season will be one of extremes. Arsenal could finally taste the title, fulfilling years of anticipation and expectation. Meanwhile, traditional heavyweights like Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool may face unprecedented challenges, both on and off the pitch.

For fans, it promises a rollercoaster: triumph for the Gunners, heartbreak for some, and drama across the European qualification and relegation battles. Every fixture from now until May could define destinies—especially for Arteta’s side, whose remarkable form could turn the dream of Premier League glory into reality.