Andhra Pradesh, Telangana Weather: New Bay System May Bring Heavy Rains In October - Read On

Weather experts predict heavy to very heavy rainfall across Andhra Pradesh and Telangana this October as a new weather system develops over the Bay of Bengal, raising concerns about widespread showers.

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The Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts favourable weather conditions for rains in the Bay of Bengal again. The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) says a cyclonic circulation will form over the North Andaman Sea on October 12. This system will create a low-pressure area in the Andaman Sea by October 13. APSDMA expects this to strengthen into a depression over the South Bay of Bengal and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal by October 15. Experts believe it might even turn into a severe depression and eventually a cyclone.

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The weather department expects changes in the weather patterns of the Telugu states from October 12. A depression will form in the Bay of Bengal between October 12 and 15. This system might turn into a cyclone if conditions favour it. The cyclone's direction remains the biggest question right now. We need clarity on whether it will move towards Odisha or hit Coastal Andhra. Coastal areas will definitely face heavy to very heavy rains if the storm moves towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

The previous low-pressure system weakened after becoming a severe depression, but it still brought heavy rains. This upcoming system will be the first cyclone of the season if it forms after October 15.

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The IMD predicts scattered thunderstorms and lightning across Coastal Andhra right now. The weather department issued warnings for thunderstorms, lightning, and strong winds in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema from October 3 to 6. The latest bulletin mentions no special warnings from October 7 to 9. Scattered rains will continue in the first week of October. The new system in the Bay of Bengal will increase the rain intensity in the second week.

Do you know the rainfall deficit in AP?

Andhra Pradesh recorded a lower than normal rainfall this Southwest monsoon season. State government data shows the state received only 384.2 mm of rain against the normal 599.3 mm between June 1 and October 2. This creates a 35.9 percent rainfall deficit across the state.

Recent rains in North Andhra reduced the deficit slightly, but many districts still face a shortage. Districts like Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Alluri Sitarama Raju, Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Krishna, and Guntur recorded normal rainfall. Meanwhile, Annamayya district faces a 62.8 percent deficit. Sri Sathya Sai has 57.8 percent, Prakasam has 60.6 percent, YSR Kadapa has 48.5 percent, and Nandyal has a 44.7 percent deficit. Other districts also report deficit rainfall.

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Telangana currently experiences dry weather. The Hyderabad Meteorological Centre announced that rains will start again from October 6. Districts like Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Mulugu, Mahabubabad, Bhadradri Kothagudem, Khammam, Nalgonda, Suryapet, Nagarkurnool, and Wanaparthy will receive light to moderate rains. The department issued a yellow alert for thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds blowing at 30-40 kmph.

The Telangana Weatherman predicts an increase in rain intensity across the Telugu states between October 3 and 12. Telangana will witness heavy downpours due to the severe depression even if a cyclone does not form.

Favourable conditions for a low-pressure system will develop in the Bay of Bengal from October 13 to 18. This system will trigger the Northeast monsoon in South India. The low pressure and depression will decide the rainfall pattern in Telangana during this period. Southeast Telangana districts near Andhra Pradesh will face a severe impact if the cyclone forms.

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The low-pressure area will form by October 13 and strengthen into a depression by October 15. We cannot say for sure right now if it will turn into a cyclone after that. The exact path of the potential cyclone also remains unclear at this stage. We do not know if it will head towards Odisha, North Andhra, or another direction. However, weather experts confirm that mid-October will definitely bring heavy rains.