Oil Markets Steady Despite Drop, WTI Below $65 and Geopolitical Risks Rise

WTI crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel but remained on track for strong gains due to rising geopolitical risk linked to US-Iran tensions. Brent crude traded near $70 a barrel. Analysts forecast oil prices may average near $60/barrel in 2026.

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Oil prices fall below $65 but remain on track for strong monthly gains

On January 30, 2026, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel, easing some recent gains. WTI was trading at about $65.30 a barrel, down slightly from the previous day’s level. Despite this pullback, oil prices are still set for their best monthly performance since July 2023 because of rising geopolitical risk in global energy markets.

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Geopolitical tensions affecting prices

Prices have been supported this month by concerns over heightened US–Iran tensions. Markets reacted after US President Donald Trump urged Iran to enter nuclear talks, while Iran warned of retaliation. Traders are watching how these tensions could affect oil flows, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow route that carries a significant share of global crude and liquefied natural gas shipments each day.

Earlier, oil was also lifted by worries about production problems in places like Kazakhstan, tightening US oil export rules on Russia, and supply issues in Venezuela. These factors helped push oil prices higher this year, even though many analysts expect global markets to have oversupply later in 2026.

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Price movements this week

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, was trading near $70 per barrel on January 30, after slipping slightly from recent highs. Reports on global exchanges show Brent has been more volatile this week because of changing views on possible diplomatic talks and supply threats.

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What analysts are saying

A Reuters poll of economists and analysts suggests that oil prices are likely to hover near $60 a barrel for most of 2026. The poll forecast that Brent crude might average around $62.02 per barrel this year, slightly higher than forecasts made in December 2025. US crude (WTI) is expected to average near $58.72 per barrel. Analysts said that even though geopolitical issues can push prices up in the short term, expected oversupply may balance those risks and keep prices steady overall.

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Why markets remain sensitive

Oil markets remain sensitive to news because crude is a major input for industry, transport and heating around the world. Events that might disrupt supply can push prices up quickly, while signs of easing tensions or higher supply can pull them down just as fast.