State Polls 2016: Here is what the exit polls say

Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have voted for change giving BJP its first government in the northeastern state dislodging Congress which also lost Kerala while DMK was set to regain power trouncing AIADMK, according to various exit polls shown on TV channels.

 

Only West Bengal has bucked the trend by re-electing Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who managed to hold on to power by defeating the Left-Congress alliance convincingly for a second consecutive term, the polls showed.

 

The Congress could take solace from its projected victory in the tiny Union Territory of Puducherry where it is likely to get power in alliance with the DMK.

 

Kerala: 

 

Various exit poll results have predicted a Left surge in Kerala. 

 

Today's Chanakya exit poll says that 49% of the voters want a regime change in Kerala. The Left will have an advantage over the UDF, it predicted. As much as 43% wants the UDF government to continue. It also says that 53% of the minority (mainly Muslims) voters prefers the UDF. Among Christians, 30% backed the LDF.  The numbers are: LDF - 75 (± 9) seats, UDF - 57 (± 9) seats, BJP - 8 (±4) seats. 

 

C-Voter gave the following numbers: LDF - 78 seats, UDF 58 seats, BJP+ - 2 seats and Others - 2 seats. These numbers match very closely with the Chanakya predictions.  

 

India Today's pre-poll also predicted that the Kerala polls will see some great falls and many ministers in the Oommen Chandy ministry will taste defeat. Ministers K Babu, KM Mani, MK Muneer and KP Mohanan will be voted out, the survey said. It also says that the Muslim League would emerge as the biggest party in the opposition UDF. The numbers are: LDF - 94 seats, UDF - 54 seats and BJP - 1 seat. 

 

Kerala recorded a huge voter turnout in the first ever stiff triangular political battle in its poll history. The total voting percentage stood at 73%.  The final round up is likely to push the percentage a bit higher. 

 

Tamil Nadu: 

In what comes as a surprise, major agencies are predicting a loss for the AIADMK, with the DMK edging out Jayalalithaa by as much as 14 seats.

 

A News Nation poll gives the AIADMK 95-99 seats and the DMK 114-118. The BJP is not expected to make any gains at all, or a maximum of 1 or 2 seats at most.  News Nation predicts the DMK will gain nearly 4% more votes than the AIADMK, taking 39% to Amma's 34%

 

India Today also took a similar line, giving the AIADMK 89-101 seats while the DMK wins big with 124-140 seats. 

 

Today's Chanakya gave the AIADMK 90-99 seats and assigned the majority share to the DMK (along with their allies the Congress), predicting 140-151 seats for the combine. It allocated 4-6 seats for the smaller parties like PWF etc.  

 

However, C-Voter gave the state back to Jayalalithaa, predicting 139+ seats for the AIADMK, with the DMK trailing behind with 78+ seats. The BJP is predicted to get no seats in this poll with the others taking 17 seats. 

 

Assam: 

 

Assam and Kerala remain the toughest fight for the Congress, with strong anti-incumbency swings in both states. If the Congress loses both, then Karnataka remains the last 'big' state for the party - a large worry? 

 

In Assam, India Today projected a win for the BJP-AGP combine, giving the BJP+ between 79 to 93 seats. The exit polls predicted a major drop for the Congress, who are expected to win 26 to 33 seats. The biggest loser, at least in this poll, is the AIDUF, which was originally slated to make large gains.

 

These results were supported by ABP Ananda as well, which predicted similar results, giving the BJP+ alliance 81 seats and the Congress 33 seats. 

 

C-Voter, in Times Now, projects 57 seats for the BJP alliance in Assam, giving the Congress 41 seats and the AIDUF rounding up the pack with 18 seats. 

 

West Bengal: 

India Today predicted a "massive landslide" in favour of Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), claiming that Mamata will make significant gains among all forms of the voter. The BJP is also given a good showing, with a predicted 1-5 seats. 

 

C-Voter, with Times Now, also predicts a "juggernaut" win for Mamata, giving the TMC 167 seats, while the Left and its allies is predicted to win 75 seats. 

 

Today's Chanakya, which got the 2014 prediction nearly perfect, has given the BJP a massive gain in West Bengal. While the BJP won no seats in 2011, Chanakya predicts 14 seats for the BJP. TMC is predicted to gain 3%, with 210 seats and the Left+Congress 'joat' is not expected to create any magic, predicted to win 70 seats. 

 

ABP Ananda also predicts a victory Didi, giving the TMC 163 seats with the Left-Congress combine close behind with 126 seats. The poll gives the BJP one seat.