VanEck Says First Quarter Could Mark ‘Risk On’ Phase For Crypto Markets

VanEck says that clearer fiscal and monetary signals are making investors more willing to take risks in 2026, bullish for the crypto market.

• VanEck said clearer fiscal and monetary policies are improving market visibility and supporting a risk-on investment outlook in 2026
• VanEck highlighted gold’s continued strength in 2026, after reaching record-highs in December 2025
• VanEck identified India as a long-term growth opportunity, while industry leaders pointed to the importance of large regional markets in crypto adoption 

Asset manager VanEck said on Monday that clearer fiscal and monetary policies support a risk-on investment outlook in 2026. The asset manager also highlighted gold’s continued strength and identified India as a long-term growth opportunity within global crypto adoption.

In its Q1 2026 Outlook report, VanEck said that investors are operating with clear signals around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes. According to the report, the market has not had these conditions in years. The firm said that visibility supports a more constructive risk stance “even as selectivity remains critical.”

“In crypto, Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals. This divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next 3–6 months,” said VanEck on X.

VanEck's 2026 prediction. | Source: @vaneck_us/X

They also pointed to a gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture. In a presentation tied to the outlook, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck cited estimates showing the U.S. federal deficit shrinking from 6.4% of GDP in fiscal 2024 to 5.3% in 2026. 

Gold Allocation Trends

As part of its broader outlook, VanEck said that gold “continues to re-emerge as a leading global currency,” driven by global central bank purchases, and a world that is “increasingly less dollar-centric.” 

In 2025, gold reached its all-time high, when the price rose to $4,533 per ounce in December. VanEck noted that “[this] trend continued into 2026,” and that while gold appears “somewhat extended from a technical standpoint,” the structural case still “remains intact.”

Gold was trading at $4582 per ounce on Tuesday. Gold-backed stablecoin Tether Gold (XAUT) was trading at $4,582.89 on Tuesday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Tether Gold remained in ‘neutral’ territory, as chatter changed from ‘low’ to ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

India In Crypto Market 

Beyond traditional assets, VanEck also pointed to regional growth stories shaping the next phase of digital asset adoption. VanEck said India remains a “high conviction, long-term opportunity,” citing growth dynamics and expanding digital participation. More broadly, industry leaders have pointed to Asia’s role in shaping global crypto adoption and capital flows. 

Their outlook places India within this broad regional context, stating that by 2035, India would “[head] to China scale.” With a GDP of $4.19 trillion, India is the fourth-largest economy in the world. India is also a leader in crypto adoption, with around 119 million users reported as of early January. 

In a similar vein, Jack Yi, the Liquid Capital founder, said on X that the US, China, and South Korea remain the most important markets in the crypto industry, highlighting macro conditions and regional capital flows. 

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