Musk also said Tesla cut AI5 RAM to 72 GB and AI6 to 144 GB to scale Optimus production.
- Munster expects 497,000 deliveries, above the Street’s 461,000 estimate, as Tesla’s “EV winter” thaws.
- He cited high gas prices, FSD awareness and longer Model 3/Y lead times as demand signals.
- Musk expects the RAM reductions to have a “negligible effect” on Optimus performance, saying memory bandwidth is the bigger constraint.
Shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) are heading for their worst week in more than two months ahead of Friday’s third-quarter delivery report, as one prominent analyst sees signs of an EV demand thaw while Elon Musk moves to reduce memory requirements for Optimus.
TSLA stock ended Thursday 0.2% lower at $354.11, bringing its weekly decline to 5%.
Munster Sees Tesla’s ‘EV Winter’ Beginning To Thaw
Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster expects Tesla to deliver 497,000 vehicles in the September quarter, well above a Street estimate of 461,000 vehicles and nearly flat from a year earlier. The broader consensus implies a year-over-year decline as Tesla faces a difficult comparison with last year’s rush to buy EVs before the U.S. federal tax credit expired.
However, Munster sees a different picture emerging. “I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago,” he said on X, pointing to high gasoline prices, growing awareness of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and longer U.S. Model 3 and Model Y lead times as signs of stronger-than-expected demand.
Munster estimated that 40% of Tesla deliveries come from the U.S. and said that average lead times for the Model 3 and Model Y have doubled since last fall, from around five to six weeks to about 10 weeks.
His estimate sits above several Wall Street forecasts. JPMorgan recently cut its projection to 482,000 from 516,000, while Cantor Fitzgerald has projected 421,758 deliveries. Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, also highlighted the difficult comparison, noting that last year’s expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit likely pulled purchases forward into the third quarter.
Musk Slashes AI5, AI6 RAM To Scale Optimus
While Tesla’s automotive demand takes center stage on Friday, Musk is confronting another potential bottleneck in the company’s push to scale its Optimus humanoid robot. Musk said Tesla has halved planned random access memory (RAM) for its AI5 chip to 72 GB of LP5 and cut AI6 RAM by one-third to 144 GB of LP6.
“This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost,” Musk said on X. He expects the reduction to have a “negligible effect” on Optimus performance because memory bandwidth is a bigger constraint than total memory capacity, with bandwidth remaining unchanged.
Tesla Lines Up $30B As Spending Push Accelerates
Tesla’s push into AI, robotics and manufacturing is also driving a steep increase in capital requirements. The company recently secured $30 billion in senior unsecured credit facilities this week, comprising a $20 billion three-year delayed-draw term loan, an $8 billion five-year revolving facility and a $2 billion 364-day revolver. The facilities were undrawn at signing, and Tesla said it does not currently plan to tap them in 2026.
StoneX reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and $475 price target, implying a 34% upside from current levels, after the announcement, viewing the financing as proactive preparation for Tesla’s expanding investment program.
Tesla expects 2026 capex to top $25 billion as it pours money into AI infrastructure, manufacturing and its semiconductor project with SpaceX. But the $30 billion financing has also raised questions about Tesla’s future cash needs. Its $20 billion delayed-draw commitment shrinks to $10 billion in September 2027 and $5 billion three months later before expiring in March 2028, while Tesla pays a fee to keep the undrawn funding available.
Tesla bear Gordon Johnson said it puts 2027 in focus as the company bankrolls its expansion. “The number that matters isn’t the cash today. It’s the cash left after $TSLA builds what it has promised,” he said.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA rose to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a week ago, amid a 16% decline in message volume over the same period.
One bullish user said, “$TSLA Tesla beat delivery numbers last time and still fell 7% .it's going up 7% on the beat this time.”
View this Stocktwits post
Another user said, “$TSLA Unlike the last delivery report, there has been no rally heading into the report tomorrow, so either a positive outcome is not priced in, or a negative outcome is priced in, imo.”
View this Stocktwits post
So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's worst performer, down about 21%.
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