GLJ Research said Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries could rise 19% sequentially, mainly due to selling off excess inventory from the previous quarter.
- The firm said there is no evidence that demand has re-accelerated and maintained a ‘Sell’ rating.
- The EV maker produced 50,363 more cars than it delivered in Q1.
- Wall Street remains divided on the benefits of a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla.
Tesla’s (TSLA) second-quarter deliveries are expected to pick up in the second quarter by 19% on a sequential basis and by around 11% on an annual basis, according to GLJ Research, but analyst Gordon Johnson isn’t convinced about improving demand.
Tesla, which reported deliveries of 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 and 384,122 vehicles in the prior year, is expected to deliver 426,017 vehicles in the current quarter.
Tesla shares were down 1% at the time of writing and have been under pressure this month. Investor Gary Black had earlier noted that some retail investors may be selling Tesla stock to buy SpaceX shares.
GLJ Says Q2 Gains Will Be A Byproduct Of Seasonal Tailwinds
GLJ noted that while the second-quarter (Q2) estimate is higher than most Wall Street forecasts, it is still below broader market expectations. The firm argued that stronger second-quarter deliveries are “not evidence that demand has re-accelerated,” and that Tesla entered the quarter with excess inventory after a 4% miss in Q1 deliveries. The EV maker produced 50,363 more cars than it delivered in Q1.
Johnson also highlighted that the second quarter is typically a stronger period for vehicle sales, which could help boost Tesla’s delivery numbers. The firm reiterated a ‘Sell’ rating.
Overall, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, supported by a 23.5% jump in the company’s China-made EV sales.
Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation
Much of the conversation has shifted to the possibility of a merger between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla, leaving Wall Street divided.
Oppenheimer said keeping the two companies separate would be a better way to support Elon Musk's long-term AI goals. The firm stated that Musk’s vision “is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital” and that “having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively.”
In contrast, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been a strong supporter of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. He believes there is an 80% to 90% chance the two companies will merge in 2027 after SpaceX goes public, calling it Musk’s “holy grail” because it would give him greater control over a broader AI ecosystem.
Retail’s Take On TSLA
Retail sentiment for TSLA on Stocktwits turned ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a day earlier. One user said the stock will set off if it breaks past $414. It is currently trading at around $397.
View this Stocktwits post
The stock has declined around 16% so far this year.
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