Morningstar raised its uncertainty ratings for Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T to 'High' from 'Medium.'
- SpaceX agreed to acquire up to 14 megahertz of paired 800-megahertz spectrum from Grain Management last week.
- Raymond James called fears of a near-term Starlink challenge to T-Mobile “overblown,” saying competition is more than three years away.
- Morningstar said Verizon holds more than three times the low-band spectrum depth of SpaceX in most areas.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) slipped 0.6% overnight heading into Tuesday as Raymond James called fears of a near-term Starlink challenge to T-Mobile “overblown,” while Morningstar said Verizon’s network gives established carriers a significant edge.
SPCX stock closed Monday at $163.42, up 0.5%, after gaining 2% last week for a second straight weekly gain.
T-Mobile And Verizon Keep Their Network Edge
“We believe the recent fears over competition from SpaceX are overblown, as they are 3+ years away from becoming reality, and competition from larger players is nothing new to T-Mobile,” Raymond James said. The firm raised its rating on T-Mobile to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' and set a $170 price target, implying a 12% upside from current levels.
SpaceX agreed last week to acquire Grain Management’s nationwide 800-megahertz spectrum portfolio, which includes up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum. Grain had acquired the licenses from T-Mobile earlier in 2026. The transaction has been reported at around $8 billion.
Meanwhile, Morningstar said SpaceX’s spectrum deal raises uncertainty for wireless carriers, but its base case remains that Starlink will not threaten their wireless operations. It raised its uncertainty ratings for Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T to 'High' from 'Medium' and said SpaceX still needs more spectrum and thousands of sites to build a competitive ground network.
Morningstar noted that Verizon has the weakest low-band spectrum position among the three major carriers, but still holds more than three times the low-band spectrum depth in most areas. Building a large terrestrial network could be a poor use of capital in a mature market, the firm said, although SpaceX has deep pockets.
T-Mobile: Spectrum Alone Isn’t Enough
In a LinkedIn post from last week, T-Mobile’s CTO said, “You can acquire spectrum in a single transaction. You cannot acquire a nationwide, high-performing wireless network overnight.” He put Starlink Mobile’s holdings at 80 megahertz after the proposed acquisition, some of it uplink-only, compared with T-Mobile’s nearly 400 megahertz of low-band and mid-band spectrum.
Building that network, he said, takes years of investment and construction. Wireless networks are built “site by site, neighborhood by neighborhood,” he wrote, including coverage inside buildings and other hard-to-reach places.
Stifel Sees More Room For SpaceX To Grow
Stifel reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating and $190 price target on SpaceX, implying a 17% upside from current levels. The firm called the spectrum acquisition “a new investment in SPCX’s mobile business” and said it advances SpaceX’s wireless plans alongside approval for up to 15,000 next-generation Starlink Mobile satellites.
Stifel outlined three possible paths for SpaceX: build a terrestrial network, partner with existing operators or develop a different architecture.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a day ago amid a 160% jump in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “$SPCX back to the $150s tomorrow folks. This whole 800mhz spectrum dream, which isn't even going to slightly begin until next year, news has faded.”
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Another user said, “$GSAT $AAPL Should just cut a deal with $SPCX already and BUY Globalstar”
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SPCX stock has risen 2% year-to-date.
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